Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2026 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2026 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2026 xFP: Wide receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 25 29 4 1 9 94 1 2. Chris Olave , NO 25 28 4 1 8 151 0 3. Matthew Golden , GB 24 16 -9 1 7 110 1 4. DK Metcalf , PIT 20 8 -12 1 5 124 0 5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 19 26 7 1 7 82 1 6. Nico Collins , HOU 19 21 2 1 4 94 1 7. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 19 15 -3 1 5 74 1 8. Jameson Williams , DET 18 9 -10 1 5 93 1 9. Jalen Coker , CAR 18 34 16 1 5 92 1 10. Christian Watson , GB 17 33 15 1 5 85 1 11. Justin Jefferson , MIN 17 31 14 1 6 78 1 12. Puka Nacua , LAR 17 12 -4 1 5 86 1 13. Ladd McConkey , LAC 17 19 3 1 4 72 1 14. Devaughn Vele , NO 16 20 4 1 7 67 1 15. Deebo Samuel Sr. , SF 16 18 2 1 6 44 1 16. Malik Nabers , NYG 15 13 -2 1 6 81 0 17. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 15 11 -4 1 5 82 0 18. Kalif Raymond , CHI 15 16 2 1 7 70 0 19. Stefon Diggs , WAS 14 16 1 1 6 74 0 20. DJ Moore , BUF 14 21 7 1 4 90 0 21. Khalil Shakir , BUF 14 9 -5 1 4 47 1 22. Caleb Douglas , MIA 13 14 1 1 5 81 0 23. Malik Washington , MIA 13 6 -7 1 4 84 0 24. Parker Washington , JAC 13 19 6 1 4 69 0 25. Mike Evans , SF 13 17 4 1 4 54 1 26. Roman Wilson , PIT 12 6 -7 1 3 71 0 27. Kendrick Bourne , ARI 12 16 3 1 6 54 0 28. Michael Wilson , ARI 12 11 -1 1 4 66 0 29. Alec Pierce , IND 11 10 -1 1 3 69 0 30. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 11 14 3 1 4 63 0 31. Jayden Reed , GB 11 5 -6 1 5 50 0 32. KC Concepcion , CLE 11 8 -3 1 3 52 0 33. Tee Higgins , CIN 11 9 -2 1 3 73 0 34. DeMario Douglas , NE 11 7 -4 1 5 52 0 35. Antonio Williams , WAS 11 16 6 1 3 40 1 36. Mack Hollins , NE 10 9 -1 1 3 47 0 37. Emeka Egbuka , TB 10 11 1 1 4 61 0 38. Keenan Allen , IND 10 9 -1 1 4 37 0 39. George Pickens , DAL 10 6 -4 1 3 68 0 40. DeVonta Smith , PHI 10 8 -2 1 3 63 0 41. Zay Flowers , BAL 10 26 16 1 3 61 0 42. Dontayvion Wicks , PHI 10 15 6 1 2 50 0 43. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 10 8 -1 1 1 30 1 44. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 9 6 -3 1 4 50 0 45. Quentin Johnston , LAC 9 4 -5 1 4 52 0 46. Davante Adams , LAR 9 6 -4 1 4 53 0 47. Carnell Tate , TEN 9 8 -1 1 4 49 0 48. Denzel Boston , CLE 9 14 5 1 2 47 0 49. Pat Bryant , DEN 9 8 -1 1 5 41 0 50. Wan'Dale Robinson , TEN 9 9 0 1 5 39 0 51. Xavier Worthy , KC 9 5 -4 1 4 46 0 52. Demarcus Robinson , SF 9 13 4 1 1 32 1 53. Tre Harris , LAC 9 5 -4 1 4 48 0 54. Jalen Nailor , LV 8 6 -3 1 3 48 0 55. Ja'Kobi Lane , BAL 8 2 -6 1 2 27 1 56. Drake London , ATL 8 6 -3 1 3 38 0 57. Luther Burden III , CHI 8 10 2 1 3 39 0 58. Courtland Sutton , DEN 8 3 -4 1 3 40 0 59. Malachi Fields , NYG 7 5 -3 1 2 45 0 60. Tre Tucker , LV 7 5 -2 1 2 39 0 61. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 7 5 -3 1 3 36 0 62. Terry McLaurin , WAS 7 3 -4 1 3 29 0 63. Jack Bech , LV 7 11 4 1 2 33 0 64. Chris Godwin Jr. , TB 7 8 2 1 3 25 0 65. Joshua Palmer , BUF 6 10 4 1 0 33 0 66. Bryce Lance , NO 6 7 1 1 3 34 0 67. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 6 3 -3 1 2 34 0 68. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 6 3 -3 1 2 20 0 69. Jahan Dotson , ATL 6 3 -3 1 2 42 0 70. Josh Downs , IND 6 6 0 1 3 33 0 71. Rome Odunze , CHI 6 7 1 1 1 42 0 72. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 6 4 -2 1 1 43 0 73. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 6 9 3 1 2 38 0 74. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 6 4 -2 1 3 29 0 75. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 6 12 7 1 1 22 0 76. Romeo Doubs , NE 6 0 -6 1 1 40 0 77. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 6 7 1 1 2 32 0 78. Makai Lemon , PHI 6 3 -3 1 3 23 0 79. Josh Cameron , JAC 5 10 5 1 1 16 0 80. A.J. Brown , NE 5 6 0 1 3 26 0 81. Cooper Kupp , SEA 5 6 0 1 1 34 0 82. Chris Moore , BAL 5 6 1 1 1 35 0 83. Michael Pittman Jr. , PIT 5 9 4 1 2 27 0 84. Ted Hurst , TB 4 7 2 1 1 28 0 85. Dyami Brown , WAS 4 0 -4 1 1 33 0 86. Malik Benson , LV 4 1 -4 1 1 22 0 87. Tez Johnson , TB 4 0 -5 1 0 8 0 88. Jahdae Walker , CHI 4 7 3 1 1 5 0 89. Jaylin Noel , HOU 4 7 3 1 2 20 0 90. Darnell Mooney , NYG 4 5 1 1 2 20 0 91. Jordan Addison , MIN 4 0 -4 1 1 21 0 92. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 4 1 -2 1 2 20 0 93. Kayshon Boutte , HOU 4 3 -1 1 1 22 0 94. Chris Bell , MIA 4 4 0 1 1 26 0 95. Skyy Moore , GB 4 0 -4 1 0 9 0 96. Jaylen Waddle , DEN 3 1 -2 1 1 18 0 97. Xavier Legette , CAR 3 0 -3 1 1 18 0 98. Rashee Rice , KC 3 10 7 1 2 12 0 99. Kevin Coleman Jr. , MIA 3 0 -3 1 1 20 0 100. LaJohntay Wester , BAL 3 4 1 1 1 14 0 101. Troy Franklin , DEN 3 1 -2 1 0 17 0 102. Derius Davis , LAC 3 0 -3 1 0 16 0 103. Jared Wayne , HOU 2 2 0 1 0 9 0 104. Tyquan Thornton , KC 2 0 -2 1 0 17 0 105. Dohnte Meyers , CIN 2 4 2 1 1 5 0 106. Jauan Jennings , MIN 2 0 -2 1 0 15 0 107. Bo Melton , GB 2 2 0 1 1 9 0 108. Jonathan Mingo , DAL 2 2 0 1 1 9 0 109. Jordan Whittington , LAR 2 2 0 1 1 8 0 110. Laquon Treadwell , IND 2 0 -2 1 1 9 0 111. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 2 0 -2 1 1 10 0 112. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 2 2 0 1 1 7 0 113. Olamide Zaccheaus , ATL 2 2 0 1 1 7 0 114. Keon Coleman , BUF 2 1 0 1 1 6 0 115. Omar Cooper Jr. , NYJ 2 4 2 1 1 6 0 116. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 2 0 -2 1 1 7 0 117. Arian Smith , NYJ 2 0 -2 1 1 6 0 118. Rashod Bateman , BAL 2 0 -2 1 0 11 0 119. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 1 2 0 1 1 5 0 120. Jaylin Lane , WAS 1 1 0 1 1 6 0 121. Chimere Dike , TEN 1 0 -2 1 1 6 0 122. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 1 -2 -3 1 1 6 0 123. Cyrus Allen , KC 1 0 -1 1 1 7 0 124. Ashton Dulin , IND 1 0 -1 1 1 5 0 125. Cody White , LV 1 0 -1 1 1 6 0 126. Barion Brown , NO 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 127. Kameron Johnson , TB 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 128. Myles Price , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 129. Devin Duvernay , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 130. Nikko Remigio , KC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 131. Greg Dortch , BUF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 132. Kyle Williams , NE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 133. Tom Kennedy , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 134. Braxton Berrios , NYG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 135. Malachi Corley , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 136. Xavier Smith , LAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 137. Kaden Wetjen , PIT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 138. Zachariah Branch , ATL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 139. Germie Bernard , PIT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 140. CJ Williams , JAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 141. Tay Martin , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 142. Darius Cooper , PHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 143. Calvin Ridley , TEN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 144. Dareke Young , LV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 145. Deion Burks , IND 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 146. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 147. Jalen Brooks , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 148. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 149. Chris Blair , ATL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 150. Simi Fehoko , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 151. Ryan Miller , MIA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 152. Velus Jones Jr. , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 153. Zavion Thomas , CHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 154. Ben Skowronek , PIT 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 155. Jackson Meeks , DET 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 156. Montorie Foster Jr. , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 157. Kaden Davis , CHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 158. KhaDarel Hodge , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 159. Tylan Wallace , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 160. Brenen Thompson , LAC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 161. Jalen Royals , KC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 162. Isaiah Bond , CLE 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 163. Odell Beckham Jr. , NYG 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 164. Tai Felton , MIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 165. Colbie Young , CIN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 166. Kevin Austin Jr. , NO 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 167. De'Zhaun Stribling , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 168. Jacob Cowing , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 169. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 170. Britain Covey , PHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
