NFL Week 3 predictions: Upsets, fantasy sleepers, stat lines

Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season is underway after the Falcons beat the Packers on Thursday night. But what will happen in the remaining 15 games? We have 15 predictions from our NFL experts.

First, betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks two underdogs who could win outright. Then, analytics writer Seth Walder projects stat lines for three players. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody gives three sleepers, and analyst Matt Bowen predicts three players who will find the end zone. Finally, analyst Ben Solak lays out four wild-card predictions.

Could the Broncos upset the Rams? Will the Chiefs' Kenneth Walker III and Xavier Worthy score against the Dolphins? Is Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud a fantasy sleeper against the Colts? And could the most entertaining game of the week be ... Raiders-Saints? Let's make 15 big predictions for all of Sunday and Monday's action.

Jump to:
Upset picks | Projected stat lines
Fantasy sleepers, surprises
TD scorers | Other predictions

Maldonado predicts two upsets

Denver Broncos +2.5 (+114) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Denver has the defensive formula to win this. With wide receiver Puka Nacua likely sidelined (groin), Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II can focus on Davante Adams. Meanwhile, Denver's pass rush can attack a vulnerable Rams offensive line. That pressure could keep Matthew Stafford from finding the rhythm he showed against the Giants.

On the other side of the ball, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix can use quick throws to find wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and avoid long third downs.

Dallas Cowboys +3.5 (+135) vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Cowboys' path is to make Baltimore play from behind in Rio de Janeiro. That shouldn't be hard since the sharpness of QB Dak Prescott and Dallas' passing game gives the team a real chance to score early, putting more pressure on Lamar Jackson and a Ravens offensive line that struggled against New Orleans. The Cowboys' biggest concern is holding up against the Ravens' rushing attack.

Walder predicts three stat lines

Abdul Carter, Edge, New York Giants: 2.0 sacks, 6 pressures, 27% pass rush win rate

Carter's rookie season was noteworthy because, despite just 4.0 sacks, he finished top-10 in pass rush win rate at edge. That was a strong sign about the player he could become, and that signal has persisted in Year 2.

Carter ranks 11th in pass rush win rate at edge and is tied for the fifth-most pass rush wins among all players. In Week 3, Carter gets the chance to run after second-year quarterback Cam Ward, whose 8.8% sack rate since the start of last season ranks third worst among qualifying quarterbacks.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: 5 targets, 3 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown

Worthy's production has been lackluster to start the season, but that could easily turn around against the Dolphins. For starters, Worthy is a candidate for some positive regression. He has converted only 11% of all air yards into completed air yards, which is an incredibly low rate. And while Worthy isn't strictly a run-straight-downfield receiver, he does run go routes or deep fades at an above-average rate.

The Dolphins have played more single-high coverage than every team but the Browns. That should give Patrick Mahomes a chance to connect with Worthy on at least one outside vertical route.

Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles: 13 tackles, 2 tackles for loss

Campbell is close to an every-play role in Philadelphia's defense, and his numbers against the run have been strong. He's in the 94th percentile in run stop win rate and third best in NFL Next Gen Stats' defensive stop rate (a similarly-named but different statistic).

With Bears quarterback Caleb Williams out of this game (hamstring), Chicago could be even more run-heavy than usual. And that ought to present a ton of tackling opportunities for Campbell.

Moody predicts three fantasy sleepers

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (rostered in 37.5% of ESPN leagues)

Wicks has emerged as Philadelphia's No. 2 receiver with at least four targets and 12 fantasy points in back-to-back games. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 74 yards in Tennessee last week, and he could see even more opportunities against Chicago since TE Dallas Goedert is out with an MCL sprain. The Bears have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game this season.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (33.8%)

Stroud has scored at least 16 fantasy points in each of the first two weeks of the season, as he's surrounded by Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and David Montgomery. This week -- even without Collins (hamstring) -- Stroud has a favorable matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Managers dealing with injuries to Jaxson Dart or Jayden Daniels shouldn't overlook Stroud as a streamer.

Adonai Mitchell, WR, New York Jets (28.4%)

Mitchell's role took a big step forward in Week 2, when he drew a team-high 12 targets while playing 82% of the snaps. He has clearly become a major part of the passing game behind Garrett Wilson and has the speed to create big plays. The Lions are tied with the Texans for the most fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers, and their depleted secondary makes Mitchell an intriguing sleeper.

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Bowen predicts three touchdown scorers

Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants

Skattebo has seen at least 16 touches a game this season, so we know the volume will be there versus Tennessee on Sunday. Plus, he had two carries inside the 5-yard line in the Giants' Week 1 win over the Cowboys, scoring on a 3-yard run. The Titans' defense has allowed three rushing scores this season.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Walker scored twice in the Chiefs' Week 1 win over the Broncos (one rushing, one receiving), plus he's averaging 23.5 carries and 4.5 receptions per game. Those are big numbers for someone who was part of a committee approach in Seattle. Let's take Walker to score Sunday versus a Dolphins defense that has already surrendered eight touchdowns.

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers

Coker has quickly emerged in Carolina's offense, catching 16 of 18 targets for 204 yards so far -- including two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Bears. The Panthers also like to get Coker the ball in scoring position. He already has targets on red zone throws from quarterback Bryce Young, and I expect more on Sunday in Cleveland.

Solak makes four more predictions

Ravens WR Zay Flowers will go for another 150 yards

The Ravens get the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro this week. While I can't speak for the field conditions at Maracanã Stadium, I can speak to a Cowboys secondary woefully lacking in speed and man coverage ability. Flowers is the clear focal point of the Ravens' passing attack, and he should get plenty of free access targets Sunday. He got 150 yards in the first half of Week 1 before injuring his hamstring, which caused him to miss Week 2. Can Flowers knock on the door of 200 in Week 3?

Jets QB Geno Smith will throw three TD passes

He has only one through two games, as the Jets have largely been a run-heavy team and happy to play for field goals. Against the Lions' defense in a dome? I think we'll see a vintage Geno game. Plus, the Jets will likely spread the field out a little more given the absence of TE Mason Taylor (thumb) and the weak spots at the Lions CBs.

Raiders-Saints will be the game of the week

There are a couple of good contenders in Patriots-Jaguars and Rams-Broncos. But I want to see the Saints put together a complete game on offense, and they face a stiff Raiders defense that has impressed with speed and pressure from their front seven. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has made it work without tight end Brock Bowers so far, but the Saints should present the toughest defense they've drawn through three weeks. Give me a 23-21 win by the Raiders, with a game-winning kick to end a contest that was within one score the whole way.

Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. will play -- and shine

The Steelers' star young cornerback has missed the first two weeks of the season with a back injury that might or might not be contract related -- Porter is on the final year of his deal and looking for a market-level extension.

He is back practicing and could play in Week 3, which the Steelers need for any shot against the Bengals' WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. For Porter, his best chance at a huge extension -- whether with the Steelers or elsewhere via trade -- is to make an emphatic point against the league's best WR pair.