Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Don't be surprised if ... the Miami Dolphins finish with top-10 fantasy options at QB and RB
Perhaps this does not seem like the best time to recommend any Dolphins in fantasy. After all, the Dolphins were not favored to win their Week 1 matchup on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders, and they may not be favored in any games this season. Other than an awesome running back who many have faded due to his circumstances, fantasy managers didn't exactly flock to the Dolphins.
Many analysts were down on first-round pick RB De'Von Achane because of the mess around him. He was the lone Miami player rostered in more than 20% of ESPN standard leagues entering opening weekend, and he scored a disappointing 10.6 points in Week 1, seeming to prove the point that investing in him remains dangerous. Myriad anxious fantasy managers will rush to trade him this week for less value than he deserves. My take: Go get him, though within reason.
Achane averaged a poor 3.3 yards per carry against the Raiders, but he fared worse in two games last season, each in the first five weeks. We like that Achane saw five targets, catching four. That means something. Achane's seasonlong ranking fell a bit, but mainly because others (Ashton Jeanty, Kenneth Walker III) rose. Achane remains in the top 10. The Dolphins hardly had good QB play last season (mostly Tua Tagovailoa) when Achane was one of five running backs to score 20 points per game.
Meanwhile, running QB Malik Willis scored 16.7 points, a bunch coming on his 14-yard touchdown run to begin the second half. He is a legit runner. Fantasy managers underestimate the impact a running QB has. Remember, Justin Fields was fantasy's No. 6 QB in 2022. He won only three of 15 starts, threw for only 2,242 yards and 17 touchdowns and he still outscored most quarterbacks for fantasy, including Tom Brady, who threw for 4,694 yards and 25 TDs. Michael Vick's 2006 Atlanta Falcons lost more than they won despite him rushing for a then-QB record of 1,039 yards. He was the No. 2 fantasy QB that season.
The running really matters. It separates the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens' Lamar Jackson into even bigger fantasy stars, and it is the reason why non-runners such as the Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford, Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow and Detroit Lions' Jared Goff must really pile up the passing numbers to compete for fantasy stardom. The Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts outscored Goff despite 1,340 fewer passing yards and nine fewer passing touchdowns. The running is why. Willis might not run for 1,000 yards or double-digit touchdowns, but he is going to run a lot and produce. He is so good at it.
Take this rare opportunity to look positively at the Dolphins for fantasy not only because Achane will still be great and Willis is underrated, but because rookie WR Caleb Douglas had 94 yards in receiving and quickly has distinguished himself as fantasy relevant. His ascension is important news for Willis and Achane. Few expected Miami's passing game to thrive, and perhaps it might never, but Willis wasn't overwhelmed. There will be touchdown passes in his future ... and touchdown runs.
Most do not believe the Dolphins will beat the San Francisco 49ers this week. Perhaps it isn't a particularly close game, either. Hey, that can work statistically, too. The Dolphins might not win for a while but then again, that's not really our problem. As long as Willis is running and he has options to throw to, and the uber-talented Achane stays healthy, there is fantasy value on this squad.
One more thing: You might be wondering, as I did, how many teams delivered the combination of a top-10 fantasy QB and RB last season. The Bills, Rams, Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars achieved this, so perhaps it isn't so rare. It would hardly be so wild if the 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears made a run for this designation this season. And perhaps the Dolphins, too!
Don't be surprised if ... Carson Wentz keeps the starting job for the Minnesota Vikings
Once an MVP candidate and now a well-traveled journeyman, Wentz showed his skills in relief of starter Kyler Murray in Week 1, engineering a comeback to knock off the Green Bay Packers. He completed only 12 passes in 19 attempts after Murray left concussed, but three went for touchdowns because WR Justin Jefferson is a cheat code. It tells us just how awful J.J. McCarthy was last season that Jefferson matched his 2025 touchdown total in just one 2026 game.
This week, it's Vikings-Bears. We all saw how the Bears couldn't defend the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, so will the Vikings also put a bunch of points on the board? Wentz has had issues with durability during his career. The Vikings will likely go back to Murray when he returns to health, but I have doubts. Would they really sit Wentz after he rips up the Chicago defense? He is a smart streamer for this week, though cautiously projected. He might be a top-10 QB this week and, if so, he should keep the starting role. The Vikings don't owe Murray loyalty. Which QB gives the Vikings the best chance to win? From a fantasy aspect, don't presume Wentz is a one-week streamer. He might be your bye week fill-in in a month, too.
My concern with Minnesota QBs for this season mainly was about Jefferson. Show competence and Jefferson bounces back. Sure, Murray once rushed for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns in his second NFL season with the Arizona Cardinals. He was a competent passer, but what statistically separated him from other quarterbacks in fantasy was the rushing. It seems unlikely that Murray, already with a concussion from the jump, will be a willing or effective runner this season. Don't move on yet but be ready.
Don't be surprised if ... Jalen Coker ends up leading his team in fantasy points
This isn't too much of an overreaction from Week 1 because Coker, the undrafted Holy Cross product in his third season, scored touchdowns in three of the final five games last season while top WR Tetairoa McMillan, the No. 8 pick in the 2025 draft, did not close his rookie season as strong. Coker put on a show against the defenseless Bears last week, totaling 138 receiving yards with two touchdowns. McMillan eventually got his numbers in a wild second half.
Do not assume the Panthers, who scored 37 points in the loss, are close to an offensive juggernaut this season. QB Bryce Young piled up the numbers in Week 1, but if he doesn't do it against the Atlanta Falcons this week, we might have our answer on a Year 2 breakout. For our purposes, it's more about the receivers. Coker and McMillan are both legit. We might be ranking them similarly from now on, as we tend to do with the Steelers and Bears options. We might find each receiver outscores the team's quarterback and running backs.
Don't be surprised if ... the top non-QB fantasy scorer for the Packers this season is currently inactive
Running back Josh Jacobs is on the commissioner's exempt list, but ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the league might count time on this list as time served for a suspension. That is important and likely expedites his return, and fantasy managers should prepare for breaking news -- at any point -- about Jacobs returning. In other words, he should be rostered in more leagues than he was a week ago, not fewer.
There will be no running back controversy with MarShawn Lloyd or anyone else when Jacobs is cleared to play. Jacobs averaged 15.8 fantasy points during his 15 games last season, 10th among running backs, besting the Rams' Kyren Williams, Cowboys' Javonte Williams and Eagles' Saquon Barkley, among many others. He scored 14 touchdowns. He outscored his QB Jordan Love, who also played in 15 games. The Packers do not want Love throwing 42 times, as he did last week. They want Jacobs running the football.
Perhaps nobody knows if Jacobs makes his season debut this month, next month, or any month, but it could happen relatively soon. It is unfair to say the overly popular Lloyd blew his opportunity in Week 1. His Week 2 might be better, and it might not matter down the road.
Don't be surprised if ... the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the New England Patriots
This isn't all about the Patriots losing star WR A.J. Brown (ankle) for the next six weeks, though it surely doesn't help. Perhaps the Patriots would have lost in Seattle to open the season anyway. QB Drake Maye looked rough. WR Romeo Doubs looked rougher. RB Rhamondre Stevenson had nowhere to run. TreVeyon Henderson didn't run at all. Then again, the Steelers play solid defense, too. They don't win more than they lose every season because of awesome quarterback play, you know. They defend.
In fact, many of New England's foes this season defend far better than last year's opponents, which is one reason I faded Maye and the skill players around him this season, notably Brown. The Patriots will not match last regular season's success. They will have trouble scoring points with this challenging schedule. This week is Pittsburgh and then they face road games with the Jaguars and Bills.
The Patriots won't be this bad all season. Maye might be a top-10 fantasy QB again, even if Mack Hollins and Hunter Henry need to lead the team in receiving. The Pats still get to play the Bears and the Dolphins and New York Jets twice. But this week? Don't assume the Patriots will score 20 points.
