"Thursday Night Football" features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Detroit Lions in the first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium.
The Lions and Bills both won in Week 1, but neither defense looked particularly good. Buffalo gave up 31 points to the Houston Texans and Detroit blew a 21-point lead before escaping with a 31-30 overtime win over the New Orleans Saints.
I'd be concerned about Detroit's secondary heading into this matchup. Tyler Shough just threw for 410 yards against the Lions, who are dealing with injuries to safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. Now they have to face Josh Allen, who can beat you through the air or take off running when the coverage holds up. The Bills' addition of wide receiver DJ Moore gives Allen another playmaker to work with.
The Lions have plenty of firepower, too. Jahmyr Gibbs should be heavily involved against a Bills defense that had trouble slowing down the Texans. Jared Goff also has top wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown to lean on.
The matchup I'm watching is defensive end Aidan Hutchinson against the Bills' offensive line. Detroit needs to make Allen uncomfortable. If he has time to throw, that Lions secondary could be in trouble again.
Betting outlook
I'm more interested in the total than the spread here. The Bills opened as a 3-point favorite, but that number has moved to 4.5. The total has also climbed, from 52.5 to 54.5. I would have been much more comfortable backing Buffalo at the opening number, but I'm not interested in laying nearly a touchdown now.
The total is a tougher decision. Both teams have the offensive talent to put up points, but oddsmakers have already adjusted for that. At 54.5, you're asking these teams to combine for at least 55 points on a short week. That's a high bar, especially with the Lions coming off an overtime game.
I'm also interested in how Detroit approaches this matchup. Coach Dan Campbell could lean on the running game to keep Allen on the sideline, which would eat up clock and make the over harder to cash.
I liked the over earlier in the week, but at 54.5, I'm staying away. I'm not going to force a bet, just because this game has shootout potential.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards OVER 87.5 (-112)
Matt Bowen: Take the anticipated run-game volume and the big play traits of Gibbs. In the Week 1 win over the Saints, Gibbs saw 29 carries. Big number there. Plus, Gibbs had seven rushes of 10 or more yards. He's a home-run hitter. Take the over on Thursday night in Buffalo.
Gibbs receptions OVER 4.5 (+123)
Ben Solak: With a huge points total in this game, we should expect a fast pace and easy offense on both sides of the ball. The Lions' offensive line is dealing with major injury. Starting left guard Christian Mahogany and starting right tackle Blake Miller are confirmed out for this game, joining projected starting center Cade Mays, who is on IR. I think Detroit will struggle to run the ball in this one, and as such, I think they'll get Gibbs his touches through the air.
DJ Moore to score a touchdown (+150)
Moody: Moore led the Bills in targets in Week 1 and ran a route on more than 80% of Buffalo's pass plays. He has already established himself as a key cog in Allen's passing game. Now he faces a banged-up Lions secondary that allowed Shough to throw for 410 yards and three touchdowns last week. I like Moore's chances of finding the end zone.
Dalton Kincaid receiving yards OVER 51.5 (-110)
Moody: Kincaid led Buffalo's tight ends in snaps, routes, targets and receiving yards against Houston in Week 1. He finished with a team-high 130 receiving yards and tied for second in targets with Khalil Shakir. Detroit allowed Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant to combine for 87 receiving yards last week, and with this game carrying one of the highest totals of Week 2, I like Kincaid's chances of clearing this number.
Keon Coleman 40+ receiving yards (+395)
Seth Walder: Coleman had just one reception for one yard in Buffalo's Week 1 contest, but he has upside that has me looking at his alt receiving yards totals. The third-year player ran a route on 53% of Buffalo's dropbacks, so the playing time was at least decent. But more important is the mix of routes he ran: 59% of Coleman's routes were verticals (for context, Moore ran vertical routes 35% of the time in that game), and three seconds into Coleman's routes he was already an average of 12.2 air yards downfield, easily the highest among Buffalo's receivers. Against Detroit's weak secondary, I expect the Bills will take plenty of shots downfield, and Coleman could hit this number by hauling in just one of them.
