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Jaguars appear destined to pick in top five for sixth straight year

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- It’s getting close to being a lock that the Jacksonville Jaguars will be extending a streak that no NFL team will want to break.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Jaguars (2-8) have an 85-percent chance of having a top five pick in the 2017 NFL draft. That would mark the sixth year in a row in which that has happened, which would extend the record streak they set last year.

ESPN’s Kevin Seifert will be doing a weekly projection of the draft order and will be using the FPI as a guide. I’ll let him explain ...

“FPI is a metric that takes into account a team's strength, the strength of its future opponents and other data points to build a profile. For the purposes of the draft, it also will use the NFL tiebreaker when needed -- reverse order of strength of schedule.

“So it's important to read this post as a data-based projection of where these teams might be positioned at the end of this season, rather than simply a list of teams in reverse order of their current record. This is not where the teams would draft if the season ended after Week 11.”

Entering this week’s games, the 0-11 Cleveland Browns have an 87.3-percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 100-percent chance of a top five pick. The San Francisco 49ers (1-9) have a 1.9-percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick and a 96.4-percent chance of a top five pick.

A bit of good news for the Jaguars, though: According to the FPI, the Jaguars have only a 1.8-percent chance of earning the No. 1 pick. Or maybe that’s bad news, depending on how you view things.

Regardless, the Jaguars are on an unprecedented run of futility. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Jaguars’ five consecutive top-five draft picks is already longest streak in the NFL since the common draft era began in 1967. The Jaguars were tied with the Houston Oilers (1984-87) with four consecutive top-five picks until finishing 5-11 last season.

The Jaguars have not exactly hit home runs with their previous four top-five picks, either:

2012: WR Justin Blackmon (No. 5 overall)

The Jaguars traded the seventh overall pick and a fourth-round pick to Tampa Bay to move up two spots. Blackmon is still serving an indefinite suspension for multiple violations of the NFL's substance-abuse policy. He has four substance-abuse arrests (the latest coming Dec. 19) and hasn't played a snap since Week 8 of the 2013 season.

2013: OT Luke Joeckel (No. 2 overall)

He began his career at right tackle but was moved to left tackle after the team traded Eugene Monroe to Baltimore. However, he suffered a fractured ankle in his first game after the position switch and missed the final 11 games of his rookie season. He struggled in 2014 but played better in 2015 until giving up five sacks in the season finale. He started the first four games of this season at left guard before suffering a major knee injury. His contract expires at the end of the season.

2014: QB Blake Bortles (No. 3 overall)

The Jaguars seemed to hit a home run with Bortles. He set single-season franchise records in TD passes (35), attempts (606) and passing yards (4,428) in 2015 but has regressed in 2016. He has 16 turnovers in 10 games, his mechanics are a mess, and he’s missing too many passes than NFL QBs have to make.

2015: DE Dante Fowler Jr. (No. 3 overall)

He missed his rookie season with a torn ACL and has struggled with maturity issues this season. He lost his starting job to 2016 third-round pick Yannick Ngakoue and has more personal foul/unsportsmanlike conduct penalties (three) than sacks (2.5).

2016: CB Jalen Ramsey (No. 5 overall)

The Jaguars did nail this pick. Ramsey has been everything the Jaguars hoped he’d be. He can play outside or inside, and the Jaguars have stuck him on opponents’ best receivers. He has taken on Steve Smith Sr., T.Y. Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper and hasn’t given up a touchdown catch to any of them. He should be a candidate for defensive rookie of the year

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