In one corner, we have the NFL playoff picture.
In the other, we have the projected 2017 draft order.
Yes, it's that time of year. As Thanksgiving approaches, roughly two-thirds of the league gears up for the playoff push. The rest shift to the draft.
So let's begin our weekly projections of the top of the draft order. We'll cut it off at 10 each week until they're all locked up. But instead of simply listing the teams with the worst records at the moment, we'll use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) as a guide.
FPI is a metric that takes into account a team's strength, the strength of its future opponents and other data points to build a profile. For the purposes of the draft, it also will use the NFL tiebreaker when needed -- reverse order of strength of schedule.
So it's important to read this post as a data-based projection of where these teams might be positioned at the end of this season, rather than simply a list of teams in reverse order of their current record. This is not where the teams would draft if the season ended after Week 11.
On with it ...
1. Record: 0-11
FPI odds of top pick: 87.3 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 100 percent
Comment: With two more losses than the next-worst team, the Browns are sucking the early drama out of this thing. Will the return of quarterback Josh McCown as the starter make it more interesting? I wouldn't sweat it. McCown has lost 19 of his past 21 starts dating to 2014. He is neither a transcendent player nor a miracle worker. The Browns have one of the worst rosters in recent memory.
2. Record: 1-9
FPI odds of top pick: 9.5 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 96.4 percent
Comment: It has been a loooooong time since the 49ers were trucking the Rams in Week 1. They have lost nine consecutive games since then, revealing a roster that needs assistance at every position. It's amazing that they'll need to finish 4-2 just to match last season's 5-11 disaster. FPI is taking the under there, and I can't argue.
3. Record: 2-8
FPI odds of top pick: 1.8 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 85.0 percent
Comment: The Jaguars are well on their way to a sixth consecutive spot in the top five of the draft. They haven't picked outside of the top 10 since 2007. Whoever coaches them in 2017, and the assumption is that it won't be Gus Bradley, will appreciate this year's positioning.
4. Record: 2-8
FPI odds of top pick: 1.5 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 81.2 percent
Comment: As the Jay Cutler era limps to a close, presumably, the Bears appear set for a third consecutive pick in the top 10. At this rate, they'll have a chance to draft Cutler's replacement -- especially if Matt Barkley is their starter for an extended period while Cutler recovers from a shoulder injury.
5. Record: 3-7
FPI odds of top pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 52.0 percent
Comment: The Jets have gone back to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, declining for now to conduct a 2017 quarterback tryout that would presumably threaten their ability to win at the moment. Will Fitzpatrick elevate them to the point where they fall out of the top five? Well, they have a decent chance to stay there regardless.
6. Tennessee Titans (via Los Angeles Rams)
Rams' record: 4-6
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 38.0 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 89.1 percent
Comment: The Titans will get this pick according to the terms of the 2016 draft trade that allowed the Rams to move up and acquire quarterback Jared Goff. So the Titans are Rams fans here. This is about where most of us thought the Rams would be after 11 weeks, despite a surprising 3-1 start. We'll see if Goff can move the needle at all.
7. Record: 3-6-1
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 11.0 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 54.0 percent
Comment: The Bengals seem to have hit a down cycle after five consecutive playoff appearances. They have picked three times in the top 10 over the past 13 years, but are in good shape to do it again in 2017.
8. Record: 4-6
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 5.4 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 43.1 percent
Comment: It would be quite a fall for the defending NFC champion to wind up in the top 10 of the draft the following year. Although they have won three of their past four, the Panthers have difficult games remaining at the Raiders, Seahawks and Redskins. They will host the Falcons and Chargers. Combined record of those teams: 32-16-2.
9. Record: 5-5
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 3.1 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 38.8 percent
Comment: The Buccaneers have been an odd team, winning four of five road games and losing four of five home games. But they have some tough games upcoming against the Seahawks and Cowboys, among others. So they have a decent chance of picking in the top 10 for the third time in 10 years.
10. Titans
Record: 5-6
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 5.2 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 40.3 percent
Comment: Could the Titans really draft twice in the top 10? It's not out of the question, even though there are some teams at the moment with fewer wins than them. Three of their five remaining games are against likely 2016 playoff teams. They'll host the Broncos and Texans, and must travel to Kansas City.
