With the 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs just around the corner, two quotes come to mind from Billy Beane, the former major league outfielder and current Athletics front office executive.
"How can you not be romantic about baseball?" Beane's character asks in the movie "Moneyball." Maybe he had this year's American League West race in mind.
The real Billy Beane, in a despondent moment in 2002, told Michael Lewis, author of "Moneyball," "My s--- doesn't work in the playoffs."
Beane's Oakland teams never did reach a World Series, which was more about the high variance of short playoff series rather than his stuff not really working, but you can apply that quote to each of this year's playoff contenders. They all have fatal flaws.
(Of course, two of them will reach the World Series anyway ... and that's the romance part.)
Let's break down what each contender's fatal flaw is and whether it will sink that team in October -- or whether the team can overcome it to make a deep postseason run.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Milwaukee Brewers
Fatal flaw: Lack of power (tied for 28th in the majors in home runs)
The Brewers have clinched their fourth consecutive NL Central title and eighth playoff appearance in nine seasons with what has been the best team in franchise history. Last year's squad set the franchise record with 97 wins, and this year's team should reach 100 with a well-rounded roster built around likely Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski.
How they got there is fascinating: Only the Cubs have scored more runs than Milwaukee, even though the Brewers might end up last in the majors in home runs. Only 32.6% of Milwaukee's runs have been scored via the long ball, easily the lowest percentage in the majors, where the overall average for 2026 is 40.6%. And here's the thing to worry about: Over the past 10 postseasons (leaving out 2020), the percentage of runs scored via the home run has gone up each year compared to the regular season.
This means hitting home runs is even more important in the postseason. Perfectly executed small ball can certainly play a role at times, but it's more difficult to put together sustained rallies against better pitching without mixing in some power. Over the past 10 postseasons, again excluding 2020, the playoff team with the fewest home runs in the regular season has gone 17-29 and failed to reach a World Series.
On the other hand, the team with the most home runs -- it has been the Yankees five times -- has reached only one World Series, with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers in 2024 (Los Angeles was third in home runs that season, just four behind New York). Those teams have gone 31-41, so they've played 72 postseason games compared to 46 for the teams at the bottom in home runs.
This doesn't mean you should write off the Brewers. For one thing, they have been hitting and slugging much better since June compared to the first two months:
April-May: .242/.328/.359, 0.71 home runs per game
June-September: .269/.349/.430, 1.10 home runs per game
Jackson Chourio sat out April, Jake Bauers has been terrific and Joey Ortiz has been one of the best hitters in the majors since the All-Star break, so the current lineup is deeper than the one early in the season. The Brewers usually find ways to score -- they've been held to one run or zero runs only 12 times all season, six fewer than any other team -- and if Misiorowski and Logan Henderson and the bullpen are dealing, they only have to hit more home runs than their opponents.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Fatal flaw: Second-half offensive struggles (tied for 16th in runs since July 1)
The Dodgers are accustomed to taking a loaded offense into the postseason: They were first in runs in 2020, fourth in 2021 (first in the pre-DH NL), first in 2022, second in 2023, second in 2024 and second in 2025. They still rank fourth in 2026, but the runs have been much harder to come by since early July.
Injuries have played a part: Shohei Ohtani's knee, Freddie Freeman's knee, Andy Pages' fractured left hand and Will Smith sat out all of July and August. But there is still some uncertainty with those injuries: Ohtani won't return until five games are left in the regular season, Freeman is playing through his sore knee and Pages has yet to return. The lineup is old -- only Pages and Kyle Tucker are younger than 30 years old among the regulars -- and might once again be counting on Miguel Rojas and Enrique Hernandez to come up big in the postseason. The Dodgers will need Ohtani to quickly find his groove -- or maybe even rookie Josue De Paula plays a role somewhere.
Minus Ohtani, who won't pitch again this season, the rotation is still strong with the big three of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell, with Tyler Glasnow probably slotting in as the fourth starter. Caveat: Snell left his start Wednesday after one inning because of groin tightness, so keep an eye on that situation. The bullpen certainly has some issues with Edgardo Henriquez on the injured list and Edwin Diaz now looking as if he won't even be on the postseason roster. Blake Treinen might need to get some key outs again.
Bottom line: Even with Yamamoto and Skubal, this looks like the most flawed Dodgers team during this long run of postseason appearances.
Atlanta Braves
Fatal flaw: Can they hit in the postseason? (.186 average from 2022 to 2024)
After winning the World Series in 2021, the Braves had disappointing NLDS exits in 2022 and 2023, following 100-win regular seasons, and then a wild-card defeat in 2024 (before missing the playoffs last season). They went 2-8 in those three abbreviated postseason series, hitting just .186 while averaging 2.5 runs per game.
The 2026 team includes essentially the same group of players that struggled in those postseasons, plus second-year catcher/DH Drake Baldwin. The Braves do some things well on offense, including hitting home runs: Matt Olson has 39, and Baldwin, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies have each surpassed 20 home runs, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley closing in on 20. That's power up and down the lineup, even if Acuña and Riley have been much more dangerous players in the past.
The one thing the Braves don't do is draw many walks, as they rank 28th in walk rate and 29th in chase rate. They have several aggressive swingers in the likes of Harris, Albies, Mauricio Dubon and even Baldwin -- hitters that good pitchers can exploit in the postseason.
Chicago Cubs
Fatal flaw: The ninth inning (Jacob Webb leads club with nine saves)
It doesn't feel good heading into the postseason and wondering who is going to get the ball in the ninth inning. Webb is a journeyman right-hander with a below-average fastball pitching for his fourth team in four seasons. He became the closer in June but has now blown four consecutive save opportunities, losing three of those games.
Maybe Chicago goes with Ryan Zeferjahn? Acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline, he at least has a closer's fastball (averaging 97 mph) and has picked up the past two saves this month for the Cubs, but he walks too many batters and has a 4.09 ERA on the season (5.65 with Chicago). Ryan Rolison? The lefty picked up a save earlier in September against the Brewers, but right-handed batters have an OPS over .900 against him. Daniel Palencia? Last year's closer hasn't been trusted in high-leverage situations since returning from the IL.
It's a mess. The Dodgers managed to survive their closer issues last October, but they had starting pitching depth they could use in relief, which the Cubs don't have. The Rangers had a bad bullpen in 2023 that got hot at the right time, so it's possible. But Cubs manager Craig Counsell is going to go through a lot of antacids if his team makes a deep run.
Philadelphia Phillies
Fatal flaw: Jesus Luzardo's injury (out because of shoulder inflammation)
The Phillies don't have a great offense, they definitely don't play great defense and the bullpen has been shaky at times, so their path to World Series heroics runs through Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Luzardo. In fact, Luzardo mighthave been in line to start the first game of the playoffs the way he had been pitching, with a 1.08 ERA over his past seven starts and 1.70 since June 10.
The Phillies remain hopeful he can return for the playoffs, but they also haven't announced any timetable. They probably will have to survive at least the wild-card series without him, which pushes Aaron Nola into the third game if needed. That might work: Nola has been pitching his best baseball in a few years, with a 2.38 ERA over his past nine starts. That ERA is a little misleading, though, as he has still been a little homer-prone and has a 4.44 FIP in that span.
And if the Phillies advance and Luzardo still can't make it back, that puts rookie Andrew Painter in the four-man rotation. He has been better since returning from the minors so it's not a lost cause, but you can see why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been getting some heat for not adding a starter at the trade deadline.
Not to mention: With final-week series against the Brewers and Rays, the Phillies still have to get to the playoffs in the first place.
San Diego Padres
Fatal flaw: Rotation doesn't miss bats (29th in strikeout rate since Aug. 1)
We're going to the beginning of August to assess the rotation, since that includes Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, acquired at the trade deadline. The problem is Mize has been terrible with the Padres, with a 5.97 ERA and only 22 strikeouts and nine home runs in 37⅔ innings. The way he has been pitching, he doesn't even project as a viable option for the playoffs right now. Ray has been almost as bad, with a 5.35 ERA and 24 walks in 33⅔ innings. Michael King is the ace, but even he doesn't miss a ton of bats, ranking 75th out of 132 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings in strikeout rate.
San Diego has that great bullpen, of course, so it won't need its starters to pitch a lot of innings, and the offense has been excellent in the second half after an awful first half, so at least that concern has been alleviated. The Padres still need to get in -- the season-ending series against the Diamondbacks might determine the final wild card -- but they'll need something from their starters to make that long-awaited World Series run.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Fatal flaw: Rotation doesn't miss bats (21st since Aug. 1)
The Diamondbacks still have to get in, but if they do, they face the same problem as the Padres, with a rotation that doesn't offer the power pitching and swing-and-miss stuff that executives want in October.
Eduardo Rodriguez has had an amazing season despite a below-average K rate, but the batted ball metrics suggest he has been a little bit lucky and has relied on a high strand rate. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt had some big moments in Arizona's 2023 World Series run, but they rank 124th and 120th, respectively, on that list of 132 pitchers in strikeout rate.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay Rays
Fatal flaw: Lineup depth (24th in OPS from 7-8-9 slots in lineup)
There's no doubting the top part of the Tampa Bay lineup, with Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero, plus trade acquisition Liam Hicks has moved into the cleanup spot against right-handed pitching. But the bottom third of the lineup has been an issue for most of the season. Is that a problem for the playoffs? It does feel as if recent World Series participants have had deep lineups and haven't had to rely on only a few stars. Let's check that hypothesis by seeing how the World Series teams ranked in OPS from their 7-8-9 hitters in the regular season (going back to 2022 when the NL instituted the DH):
2025 Dodgers: 17th
2025 Blue Jays: 9th
2024 Dodgers: 9th
2024 Yankees: 16th
2023 Rangers: 5th
2023 D-backs: 21st
2022 Astros: 24th
2022 Phillies: 5th
OK, maybe not a big indicator, but it's something. Now let's see how those 7-8-9 slots actually hit in the postseason:
2025 Dodgers: .218/.275/.311, 3 HR, 15 RBIs in 17 G
2025 Blue Jays: .251/.299/.362, 4 HR, 25 RBIs in 18 G
2024 Dodgers: .235/.303/.398, 8 HR, 21 RBIs in 16 G
2024 Yankees: .240/.355/.377, 4 HR, 17 RBIs in 14 G
2023 Rangers: .250/.335/.472, 9 HR, 22 RBIs in 17 G
2023 D-backs: .231/.297/.364, 6 HR, 17 RBIs in 17 G
2022 Astros: .164/.252/.224, 2 HR, 8 RBIs in 13 G
2022 Phillies: .180/.256/.286, 2 HR, 18 RBIs in 17 G
A stronger indicator here. Miguel Rojas, the No. 9 batter, kept the Dodgers' season alive last year with that tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 7. In 2024, Enrique Hernandez had a 1.069 OPS from the bottom of the order for L.A. while Max Muncy and Will Smith also hit there at times. The bottom of the order was absolutely huge for the Rangers in 2023. Only the Astros in 2022 won without getting much from the bottom third, but that was the postseason that Houston's pitching was nearly untouchable.
New York Yankees
Fatal flaw: Offensive strikeout rate (27th in the majors)
The Yankees are somehow ninth in the majors in runs despite not having Aaron Judge for 100 days and suffering through long stretches of offensive futility without him. Now they're battling more injuries, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham on the IL, and Judge, just back from the IL, leaving Wednesday's game because of leg tightness.
As always, the Yankees hit home runs -- only the Cubs have more. But it comes with a price: a lot of swing-and-miss. Can a team make a run to the World Series with a high strikeout rate? Going back to 2022 and the universal DH, no team in the bottom half of strikeout rate has reached the World Series:
2025 Dodgers: 12th
2025 Blue Jays: 1st
2024 Dodgers: 11th
2024 Yankees: 9th
2023 Rangers: 15th
2023 D-backs: 4th
2022 Astros: 2nd
2022 Phillies: 15th
After reaching the World Series in 2024, the Yankees have gone backward in the strikeout department, ranking 25th last season and even lower this year (a problem exacerbated by Spencer Jones and his 36% K rate, if he has to play center field over the injured Grisham).
Boston Red Sox
Fatal flaw: Middle infield (26th in OPS from 2B/SS)
It has been a revolving door at both middle infield positions all season as the Red Sox have started seven players at second base and six at shortstop, with Trevor Story's 55 games started at shortstop the most at either position. Not only has the combined offense from those spots been near the bottom of the league, but the Sox rank 19th in defensive runs saved at second base and 27th at shortstop.
Let's start with Story, since interim manager Chad Tracy seems committed to him as the shortstop. Since Story returned from the IL on Aug. 30, he has hit .349 in 16 games. It's a fluke: He has one home run, one walk, 18 strikeouts and a 49% chase rate. His average exit velocity of 82.5 mph ranks 180th out of 185 players since that date. A once dynamic fielder, his defensive metrics have been subpar for a couple of years now.
With Anthony Seigler on the IL because of wrist inflammation, Nick Sogard is the regular at second base now, although veteran Isiah Kiner-Falefa might start against lefties. Sogard has hit well, and his defense is fine (he has played all over the infield, even starting four games at shortstop). Andruw Monasterio filled in at shortstop for much of the summer and can hit lefties, but he has barely played since Story returned. Frankly, Monasterio and Kiner-Falefa are probably both better options than Story, but we'll see how Tracy plays this final week and into October.
Cleveland Guardians
Fatal flaw: Lack of power (tied for 28th in home runs)
Cleveland falls into the same boat as the Brewers, except the Guardians don't have Milwaukee's ability to hit for average or overall depth. They did add Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe at the trade deadline, and though that pair is not the only reason, the offense has been much better since then:
Through Aug. 3: .231/.310/.370, 3.95 runs per game (29th)
Since Aug. 3: .251/.324/.386, 4.63 runs per game (tied for eighth)
Steven Kwan's turnaround has really been the big key, as he has posted a .406 OBP since Aug. 4 and is tied for fourth in the majors in runs. If he keeps getting on base and Jose Ramirez gets hot -- unfortunately, he has been bad in the postseason in his career (.234/.316/.365) -- you never know in the wild and wacky and unremarkable AL.
Chicago White Sox
Fatal flaw: Bullpen is out of gas (see Cleveland series)
The White Sox are running on fumes. Manager Will Venable has tried to work around the team's lack of pitching depth by using openers and relying heavily on a bullpen that has pitched the most innings in the majors. But the overworked pen paid the toll in losing the final two games of the Cleveland series this week, allowing the Guardians to leap into first place in the division.
On Tuesday, Grant Taylor tried to finish a two-inning save but blew the game in the bottom of the ninth, his fourth straight nonscoreless appearance. The next day, Hagen Smith tried to pitch two innings for the fourth time in seven days but tired and walked two batters. Sean Newcomb came on and served up the deciding home run. It was the fifth time in six appearances he has given up at least one run after he finished August with two straight three-inning outings.
The offense is also running out of steam, hitting .207 in September with a ton of strikeouts -- they struck out 36 times in three games against Cleveland and are averaging over 10 strikeouts in September. It has been a fun ride, but the White Sox are precariously holding on to a playoff spot.
Houston Astros
Fatal flaw: Starting pitching ... ? (27th in rotation ERA)
The worst nightmare for fans outside of Houston: The Astros win the AL West with a sub-.500 record and then get hot and give us the first losing team to reach a World Series. Fun! Hey, in the AL, anything is possible -- and the Astros' bullpen has been pretty good of late with a dominant Josh Hader, and any lineup with Yordan Alvarez has the potential to do enough damage (although Alvarez will need to heat up again just to get Houston to the postseason). The Astros are third in the majors in home runs, so they do have power.
The starting pitching makes that scenario a little less plausible, although we should point out that the rotation has a 3.15 ERA in September (fourth in the majors) with Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski both pitching well. Even Cristian Javier has now had three good starts in a row. And Peter Lambert has been the one consistent and healthy starter throughout the season for the Astros. So let's see: dominant closer, the best hitter in the game this season, power and a rotation that has been mostly awful all season but is peaking at the right time. Consider yourself warned.
Texas Rangers
Fatal flaw: Struggles against right-handed pitching (26th in OPS)
The Rangers have managed to hang around all season, hovering around .500 without any big swings in momentum in either direction -- never more than three games out of first place -- and four straight wins heading into Thursday's series finale against the Red Sox moved them into a tie with the Astros atop the division. Nathan Eovaldi is back after sitting out more than a month and pitched the final four innings in relief Wednesday, giving up only one hit, so that will help the pitching staff.
The offense has been the biggest issue throughout the season, particularly against right-handers. Left-handed hitters Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager have both fared better against southpaws (although Seager is hitting everyone in September). Team MVP Ezequiel Duran has a .406 OBP against lefties, .299 against righties. Jake Burger has a .908 OPS against left-handers, .666 against right-handers. Josh Jung is hitting .352 against lefties, .281 against righties.
This suggests the Rangers might match up better against the Red Sox (all those lefty starters) or even the Yankees (Max Fried and Carlos Rodon) than the Rays or Guardians.
Toronto Blue Jays
Fatal flaw: Offense (29th in runs)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s issues this season have been well documented -- just nine home runs, including only one at home -- but producing runs has been a teamwide issue, as nearly every player has seen his numbers drop from 2025. Like last season, the Jays are a high-contact lineup (only the Rays strike out less often), but even Kazuma Okamoto's 33 home runs haven't been enough to lift this group from the bottom of the majors in offense. Only the Angels have scored fewer runs. Maybe Guerrero turns it on if the Jays sneak in, but the lineup has shown no signs of making a deep October run.
