The 2026 League Championship Series matchups are set!
Hours after the Los Angeles Dodgers advanced with a win over the Atlanta Braves, the Milwaukee Brewers set up a rematch of last year's NLCS by knocking out the San Diego Padres.
After the Tampa Bay Rays swept the New York Yankees, the Cleveland Guardians completed the ALCS field with a Game 5 win over the Chicago White Sox.
What has stood out about all four remaining teams so far? What does each need to do to punch a ticket to the Fall Classic? And who are the X factors on each roster? Our ESPN MLB experts break it all down.
Note: Matchup odds come from Bradford Doolittle's formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James' formula for determining how "hot" or "cold" a team is at any given point; the average is 72 degrees.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The teams feature similar offenses in style but unfortunately for the Guardians, everything Cleveland does, the Rays do a little better. One stylistic difference is approach early in counts. The Rays are more aggressive on first pitches; the Guardians are a patient group happy to wait out walks. Neither team leans heavily on the long ball. As good as Cleveland's pitching has been, this series comes down to whether or not its offense can muster enough runs to give its hurlers some breathing space.
The Guardians rank 28th in OPS against changeups and 27th in OPS on fastballs preceded by changeups. That's a key battle. It seems like it would tilt toward the changeup-happy Rays, but it will be interesting to see how Cleveland's hitters adapt during a long series -- if it is long -- in which they see Rays pitchers multiple times.
At the bottom line, the Rays won 13 more games than the Guardians during the season with a 75-run edge in differential. Tampa Bay is a solid favorite in this matchup.
No. 1 seed Rays' concern level: The Rays have to be feeling great about this matchup. No disrespect to the Guardians, but the Rays have a significant on-paper edge from a projection standpoint. And while the Rays' pitchers have had plenty of recovery time after the LDS round, the Guardians' hurlers were put through the meat grinder in their long series against the White Sox. -- Bradford Doolittle
Tampa Bay Rays
Odds of advancing: 57%
Team temperature: 101 degrees
What stood out most as the Rays rolled past the Yankees in the ALDS?
Their ability to put pressure on opponents. It's not just a talking point; the Rays force teams to play clean baseball with their elite bat-to-ball skills and speed. While most teams look to grind out at-bats and slug home runs, the Rays pounce early in counts and put the ball in play.
That's not to say they don't possess power. Tampa Bay finished the regular season 22nd in the majors with 169 home runs, but they ranked 12th with 58 homers after the trade deadline. MVP candidate Junior Caminero banged 42 home runs. Jonathan Aranda cranked one in Game 1 of the ALDS for the game's only run. But the Rays are comfortable not relying on home runs to win games, as they did in Game 2.
The Yankees knew what was required and failed miserably to counter the style in Game 2. The Guardians will need to be better.
Why will it (or won't it) work against the Guardians in the ALCS?
It'll work because the Rays are versatile enough to win games in different ways while proving they avoid beating themselves. Home runs are paramount in October, and the Rays should be able to hit some. But just as important in October is superb pitching and sound defense. The Rays have the ingredients to reach the franchise's third World Series -- and win it all for the first time.
Which one player is the X factor who can make (or break) Tampa Bay's World Series hopes?
The Rays' rotation is among the best in the majors, and it begins with Drew Rasmussen. The All-Star right-hander continued his careerlong dominance against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, carrying a no-hitter into the eighth inning before giving the ball to Bryan Baker for the save.
Expecting near-historic performances from Rasmussen is unfair, but the Rays will be in great shape to cover innings when others start if he can continue pitching deep into games. Starting pitching often fuels World Series runs. Rasmussen needs to be the engine. -- Jorge Castillo
Cleveland Guardians
Odds of advancing: 43%
Team temperature: 97 degrees
What stood out most as the Guardians came back to beat the White Sox in the ALDS?
Jose Ramirez. He ignited the Guardians offense in the latter three games after a sleepy start to their postseason. He also did it in the field and on the bases while showing an unusual amount of emotion. Once Cleveland started taking its walks, the hits with men on base began happening -- led by the future Hall of Famer.
Why will it (or won't it) work against the Rays in the ALCS?
Ramirez might continue hitting -- he's that good -- but the Rays' pitching staff is a step up in class. Their starters dwarf Chicago in accomplishments this year and now they have a rested bullpen led by one of the best closers in the league. Look for a drop in production at the plate for the Guardians, at least to start the series.
Which one player is the X factor who can make (or break) Guardians World Series hopes?
Steven Kwan has gone from an All-Star to a somewhat overlooked member of this Guardians lineup, and they need him on base being their version of what the Rays do. After a slow start to his season, Kwan looked more like himself in the second half while compiling a .443 on base percentage. He's kept that trend up in the postseason, getting on six times in the first four games. Ramirez might be the key player to Cleveland's offense but it's Kwan who could be the engine. -- Jesse Rogers
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
This rematch is a year in the making -- a year in which the Dodgers' core of stars somewhat slowed down and the Brewers' young foundation coalesced into baseball's best team. During the Dodgers' four-game sweep in the 2025 NLCS, the Brewers scored four total runs. There's not much more you need to know about Milwaukee's challenge in the next round.
Can an improved version of the same style of offense that faltered against the Dodgers a year ago finally get the Brewers over the top? Runs will be hard to come by for both teams -- and for every team left in the playoffs. But Milwaukee needs to get to four runs at least four times. If they can do that, they can send the Dodgers packing.
No. 1-seeded Brewers' concern level: This is the third time in the past nine seasons that the Brewers have advanced to the NLCS, still seeking their first World Series appearance since 1982. Both previous times, the Dodgers slammed the door on Milwaukee, taking seven games to do so in 2018 and just four a year ago. On paper, the Brewers look like a virtual even match against the two-time champions. Pennants aren't won on paper, though, and given the history of this rivalry, it's safe to say the Brewers are all too aware of what confronts them. -- Bradford Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
Odds of advancing: 49%
Team temperature: 113 degrees
What stood out most as the Brewers downed the Padres in the NL Division Series?
Besides their ability to detect -- or so it seemed -- that Mason Miller was tipping his pitches in Game 2? Maybe that the Brewers won this series without playing their best baseball. In Game 1, San Diego did a great job of battling Jacob Misiorowski, fouling off 30 pitches to run up his pitch count and knock him out after just four innings, not exactly what you want from your ace. Closer Trevor Megill was then perhaps saved by the roof on Ty France's potential game-winning home run. In Game 2, the Brewers made three errors, leading to two unearned runs, but held on for another one-run victory. They lost Game 3 when Cooper Pratt's throwing error allowed another unearned run to score. And Milwaukee still advanced.
Why will it (or won't it) work against the Dodgers in the NLCS?
It won't. The Brewers are usually an excellent defensive team, but giving the Dodgers too many extra outs is certainly a path to defeat. They'll need Misiorowski at the top of his game -- and pitching more than four innings in his starts.
While Milwaukee's deep bullpen is an obvious strength, and its deep repertoire of left-handers will come in handy against Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy, the plan is to rely heavily on the bullpen in the games Misiorowski doesn't start. The 11 swinging strikes he recorded in Game 1 matched his third lowest of the season (and one of the lower ones was his abbreviated three-inning start at regular season's end). Beating the Padres in four games and electing not to use Misiorowski in Game 4 worked out perfectly, as he'll be starting Game 1 on seven days of rest.
Which one player is the X factor who can make (or break) Milwaukee's World Series hopes?
Christian Yelich had gone 19 postseason games without an RBI before finally delivering a run-scoring single in Game 3. He is on the downside of his career, but he's still hitting in the middle of the order. William Contreras and Jackson Chourio can't be the only power sources, so Yelich -- and we'll throw Jake Bauers in here, as well -- is going to have to step up; if not hitting some home runs, then at least driving in runs when the opportunities arise. -- David Schoenfield
Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds of advancing: 51%
Team temperature: 106 degrees
What stood out most as the Dodgers rolled past the Braves in the NLDS?
Their ability to overcome. It seemed as if Atlanta had taken the advantage by winning a bullpen game and leaving Chris Sale fresh for a Game 3 start at home. It was barely a month ago that Sale twirled a shutout against the Dodgers. But this time, L.A. wore him down, getting him out of the game after just five innings and riding a dominant Yoshinobu Yamamoto for a much-needed victory. It changed the complexion of the series, and it emphasized something important about these Dodgers: They know how to navigate this stage as well as anyone. Yes, they're loaded with stars. They're deep too. But they've also played a lot of postseason games together over these past few years.
Why will it (or won't it) work against the Brewers in the NLCS?
L.A. won't be able to rely on that edge because the Brewers are just as battle-tested, if not more so. Consider: Milwaukee overcame multirun deficits in each of the first two games of their NLDS against the Padres. Throughout the season, the Brewers are 37-37 when the opposing team scores a game's first run, the best record in that scenario since the 2009 New York Yankees, a team that won the World Series. The Brewers are in the playoffs for the fourth straight year and the eighth time in the past nine seasons. Milwaukee has grown together, fought together. And it is not going to let itself get embarrassed by the Dodgers like it did last October.
Which one player is the X factor who can make (or break) L.A.'s World Series hopes?
A year ago when these two teams faced off in the NLCS, Shohei Ohtani put together arguably the greatest single-game performance in baseball history, clobbering three home runs and striking out 10 batters in six scoreless innings in Game 4 to clinch a sweep. Ohtani isn't pitching in this year's postseason, but the Dodgers need something closer to that version of him offensively.
They might have the talent to survive a round without Ohtani at his best, but not all of them. And perhaps not this one. The Brewers are deeper and better than the Braves. Milwaukee's bullpen is at least as good. And while the Braves have a bona fide ace, the Brewers have two of them. To make it back to the World Series, Ohtani is going to have to come alive. -- Alden Gonzalez
