Picks and analysis have been updated to reflect Magnifture being scratched
The Breeders' Cup has the opportunity to make history this year.
The two-day racing event is hosted at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington Ky., beginning on Friday and concluding with the $7 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday.
The Breeders' Cup Classic, a Grade I race run at 1¼ miles, features two Kentucky Derby winners for the third time in the event's history. Sovereignty, the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner, will face 2026 winner Golden Tempo.
This hasn't happened since Unbridled took on Strike the Gold in 1991 at Churchill Downs in a race won by Black Tie Affair. In 1987, Kentucky Derby winners Ferdinand and Alysheba dueled down to the wire at Hollywood Park, with Ferdinand winning by a nose.
Those two horses will also take on 2025 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Forever Young and 2026 Preakness winner Napoleon Solo in a field of 8 horses.
Who will win the Breeders Cup Classic? We took a look at that race and two other races that will be run on Saturday in the leadup to the finale. Here are some betting tips for Saturday's feature races.
Breeders' Cup Distaff
The $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff for fillies and mares will be run at 1⅛ miles and go off at 4:58 p.m. ET.
Nitrogen, a 4-year-old mare, will likely be the favorite in this race, and for good reason. She's done everything asked of her this year: six races, three wins, two second-place and one third-place finish. She raced against males in the Whitney and finished second to Sovereignty, then came back to beat mares in the Beldame last month.
She was the champion 3-year-old filly last year after finishing second in this race last year, and she'll be the one to beat. She will likely be in the front, but could be challenged by Splendora to set the pace.
Fully Subscribed could go off as the second choice with three wins and two second-place finishes this year, but she was runner-up to Nitrogen in the Ogden Phipps in June. She won the Grade I Spinster at Keeneland on Oct. 1.
With Splendora scratching late in the week, it feels like this race might go to the two favorites, so there might not be much value there, even in an exacta box. Try Immersive for a longshot bet.
While Nitrogen might be the best horse in the race, for betting purposes, let's assume she and Splendora get into a speed duel, leaving the door open for Fully Subscribed to make up ground for a win.
Win bet: Fully Subscribed
Exacta bet: Box Fully Subscribed and Nitrogen
Longshot pick: Immersive
Breeders' Cup Turf
The 11th race of the day is the $5 million Breeders' Cup Turf, run at 1½ miles. This race is very rarely won by U.S. based horses, most recently Bricks and Mortar in 2019.
Burnham Square has a shot despite finishing seventh in his last race, the Kentucky Turf Cup in September (won by Tiffany). He has won four races this year and finished second once, back in his season debut in February.
Ethical Diamond, who won this race at odds of 27-1 last year, breaks from the inside post and has a solid shot to win after finishing second to Tiffany last month.
Win: Benvenuto Cellini
Exacta Bet: Benvenuto Cellini over Diamond Necklace
Trifecta Bet: Benvenuto Cellini over Diamond Necklace over Tiffany, Ethical Diamond, Burnham Square
Longshot bet: Ethical Diamond
Breeders' Cup Classic
Golden Tempo will draw a lot of attention as the most recent Kentucky Derby winner. On the other hand, it's hard to discount Forever Young, who returned in top form to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September after a long layoff following a runner-up finish in the Dubai World Cup in March.
Magnitude was scratched from this race late in the week and will be retired from racing, shortening this race to a 7-horse field and eliminating one possible win contender.
That also eliminates some good betting opportunities, as more money will be placed on Forever Young and Sovereignty, who both have very good chances to win.
Without Magnitude in the race, take a look at Knightsbridge, who has the same owner (Godolphin) and trainer (Bill Mott) as Sovereignty. They bypassed the Dirt Mile to enter him against his stablemate, showing they think he has a very good chance to win. The two horses have different running styles, as Knightsbridge will run close to the pace and Sovereignty likes to close (come from behind). If Knightsbridge could get an easy lead, he could potentially have a shot to win the race, but Forever Young and Sovereignty are extremely talented horses with impressive résumés.
Golden Tempo might provide a little more value to win (but not much in such a small field), but we'll take a stand against the Kentucky Derby winner against older horses. Golden Tempo would need a horse up front to set a fast pace to close into, as he likes to come from behind.
Picks and analysis have been updated to reflect Magniftude being scratched
Win bet: Forever Young to win, place, show.
Exacta bet: Forever Young over Sovereignty
Trifecta bet: Forever Young over Sovereignty and Knightsbridge
