It's Cox Plate week! One of Australia's great races takes on a new look this year heading to Flemington for the first time due to the Moonee Valley redevelopment.
It's always a ripping contest, and this year's field shapes as a fascinating edition, with contrasting form lines and plenty of quality runners in the mix. We run the rule over every horse, breaking down the ticks and knocks ahead of Saturday's big race.
TAB fixed odds correct as of 9am AEDT, 22nd October 2026 (please visit tab.com.au for the latest).
1. Ceolwulf (3) - $7.00
The tick: In really good form without winning, placing behind Autumn Glow twice this prep. Last run at Flemington was a win in the Champions Mile last Spring. Drawn soft.
The knock: While he has won and placed at 2000m, most of his best form has come over a mile.
2. Light Infantry Man (11) - $31.00
The tick: Australian Cup winner this track and distance. Beat home some of his key rivals in the Turnbull and will again make his own luck on speed.
The knock: Won't get it his own way with a host of other speed influences in the field.
3. Sir Delius (5) - $4.60
The tick: Drawn ideally to stalk the speed. Both of his third-up runs in Australia have been wins.
The knock: Has been beaten home by Aeliana the last three times they've met, so needs to turn the tables.
4. Attrition (4) - $51.00
The tick: Last start winner. Also placed in a weight-for-age Group 1 Underwood before that in a race that has produced multiple subsequent winners.
The knock: Yet to place in three attempts at this distance.
5. Cosmic Crusader (8) - $7.50
The tick: Turnbull winner and we know he's fit. Drops back to a more preferred 2000m from last week's Caulfield Cup fourth. Will appreciate any rain if it comes.
The knock: Racing extremely well but seventh-up now and how much will a seven-day backup from an unfamiliar 2400m run take out of him?
6. Birdman (1) - $12.00
The tick: Won the Underwood in fine style and form around him has been strong. A danger if he brings his best.
The knock: Not sure he handled the hot speed behind Land Legend in the Might and Power, and a similar scenario could bring him undone again.
7. Land Legend (12) - $41.00
The tick: Incredible win breaking a track record from the front last start. Barrier 12 allows him to avoid any danger while rolling forward under his own steam.
The knock: Might not get away with those tactics here and could be a sitting duck if the pressure goes on.
8. Middle Earth (7) - $151.00
The tick: Good through the line in last week's Caulfield Cup and won over 2000m at Doomben in May.
The knock: This is just a tick-over run for the Melbourne Cup. Doesn't have the same class as others and may find 2040m too sharp.
9. Saint George (6) - $23.00
The tick: Unlucky last week when held up at the top of the straight. Has won twice at this track and trip albeit in lower grade.
The knock: Has to find a new level to be competitive here at weight-for-age. Still yet to win a black type.
10. Aeliana (10) - $4.60
The tick: Has improved with each run this prep. Stuck on well in a tough Turnbull run and now gets to Flemington fourth up on a better surface. Should be set to peak. Also gets James McDonald who has ridden the last four Cox Plate winners.
The knock: Her last three career wins have all come in Sydney. Barrier 10 could be tricky as those drawn around her will likely push forward.
11. Warwoven (2) - $4.40
The tick: Looks a serous talent. Was dominant in his back-to-back Group 1 wins leading in and carries no weight.
The knock: Has to translate his mile form to 2040m against established weight-for-age performers in what shapes as a strongly run race.
12. Blind Raise (9) - $15.00
The tick: Arrogant winner in the Guineas Prelude before his brave last-start second when run down. Like Warwoven, only carries 49.5kg.
The knock: May have no option but to go forward and challenge what is sure to be a fiercely run race at a distance he's never been.
SELECTIONS:
10. Aeliana - $4.60
3. Sir Delius - $4.60
1. Ceolwulf - $7.00
6. Birdman - $12.00
Given his obvious upside, I don't think it's too far-fetched to say Warwoven could soon have claims to being the best horse in Australia if he wins this, and he's clearly talented enough to do it. But I can't have him at the current price as favourite. Blind Raise was brave behind in the Guineas having to absorb all the pressure, and I expect both three-year-olds to run well with those light weights -- as they usually do in a Cox Plate. I just think the price discrepancy between them is too big and measuring up here in a fast race over this distance is a massive ask. I'm siding with Aeliana. She has the stamina for a high-pressure contest and the engine to mow them down. The move to Flemington this year should suit as she's likely to give the leaders a fair head start. Sir Delius' third-up profile cannot be ignored and he should get a lovely map behind the speed from barrier five. As will Ceolwulf who is flying and whose chances will only increase with the sting out of the track.
