Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league
Pitchers to stream on Thursday
This is probably the last time Edward Cabrera will be highlighted as a streamer when he takes the hill for the Miami Marlins. No, his schedule isn't about to get hard, and he isn't being shut down. His rostership is trending up and it's likely to eclipse the 50% cutoff. Over his last 16 outings, Cabrera is down to a 2.22 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Lady Luck may be lending as assist, but Cabrera's 19.8% K-BB% over that span is the 12th best among qualified pitchers, so the righty is demonstrating more than just good fortune. Next up is a road date with the Cleveland Guardians and the lineup sporting the fifth lowest wOBA facing righties.
Max Scherzer posted four quality starts over his last five outings, including the last three. One was against the Los Angeles Dodgers and another facing the Detroit Tigers, so a matchup with the Chicago Cubs is less daunting than it might be for a less experienced pitcher. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Cubs for a 3:07 p.m. ET matinee. Over the past month, the Cubs recorded the seventh lowest wOBA versus right-handers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.18 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.26 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.32 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.90 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.77 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: F | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.26 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Batters playing in Coors Field are always in demand, but on days like Thursday with only seven games on the docket, it pays to hustle to the waiver wire. The Arizona Diamondbacks square off with RHP Bradley Blalock and his 11.76 ERA over 20 2/3 home innings. Lefty-swinging Adrian Del Castillo, Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas enjoy the platoon edge, but don't ignore righties Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Blaze Alexander and Tyler Locklear.
Colorado Rockies batters to target facing southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez include Tyler Freeman, Ezequiel Tovar, Jordan Beck, Warming Bernabel and Kyle Karros. They're all right-handed and available in at least 80% of ESPN leagues.
In rotisserie formats, or head-to-head leagues with category scoring, a common play on short slates is streaming players for steals. Since the break, the Minnesota Twins are tied with the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays for giving up the most stolen bases. The Twins host the Tigers, landing Zach McKinstry and his 17 steals as a solid target for pilfers.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Arizona Diamondbacks batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .387 wOBA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .380 wOBA in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .352 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins batters vs. Tigers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals LHB vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .288 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero's launch angle of late (21.5 degrees over the past week) is considerably higher than his 8.4-degrees seasonal mark.
Kyle Manzardo | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.62 EV
One reason to bet this: Manzardo has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity. Compare his 96.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.7-mph average.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Tarik Skubal | UNDER 8.5 K (-135)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.76 EV
One reason to bet this: Skubal wasn't "on" when it came to striking batters out in his last start, compiling just two Ks.
Edward Cabrera | UNDER 5.5 K (-155)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.68 EV
One reason to bet this: It's expected that we will see a huge "hitter's umpire" (Clint Vondrak) behind the plate today.
Bryce Elder | UNDER 3.5 K (-110)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.53 EV
One reason to bet this: It's expected that we will see a huge "hitter's umpire" (Mark Ripperger) behind the plate today.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
D-Backs @ Rockies | YRFI (-160)
Projection: 64% chance of RUN with a $6.32 EV
Phillies @ Nationals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.30 EV
Mariners @ Orioles | YRFI (-140)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $0.23 EV
