The Seahawks want to make the Kansas City Chiefs earn every yard Sunday in Seattle. Their defense can stop the run without selling out, which will make this a tougher night for Kenneth Walker III. I would get him involved as a receiver. Seattle has been more vulnerable to backs catching passes, and those easy throws can keep Patrick Mahomes out of obvious passing situations.
The bigger problem for Seattle is its offense. The running game isn't giving Sam Darnold much help, and Kansas City can disguise coverage while bringing pressure. Darnold completes only 38% of his passes under pressure. That's where I believe this game turns. Jaxon Smith-Njigba will get his catches, and Seattle needs those catches to move the chains.
I trust Mahomes more to manage the ugly possessions, take the short completion and avoid the mistake that hands over points. This feels like a defensive fight, with Kansas City better equipped to win the close fourth quarter.
Betting outlook
The Chiefs lead the league in yards per play and outgain opponents by 108 yards per game, the biggest gap in the league. That's a team consistently creating more than it allows, which makes getting points appealing, even against Seattle's defense.
The difference could come when Seattle gets near the goal line. Kansas City has allowed touchdowns on only four of 12 red zone trips. Holding one possession to a field goal instead of a touchdown can decide the winner and the cover.
I'm also not assuming Seattle controls this just because it's at home. The Seahawks have led at halftime just once this season. Kansas City can put them in another game they have to chase. I like the points with the Chiefs to win outright.
Bet: UNDER 42.5 total points
Kansas City has attempted more than 30 passes only once this season. Its improved rushing game lets Andy Reid stay patient instead of chasing quick scores. Seattle also makes opponents complete short throws, so even successful possessions can require plenty of plays and burn valuable game time.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Kenneth Walker III rushing yards UNDER 85.5 (-113)
Editor's Note: The line moved to 80.5 since this was written.
Seattle hits running backs before they have much room to get going. Walker can break tackles, but he'll have to work for his yards. He can still help Kansas City win without having a huge rushing night.
