Alexander Zverev is favored to capture the second Grand Slam of his year and career Sunday, with Ben Shelton standing in his way as the underdog, seeking to become the first American man to win a major tennis title since Andy Roddick in 2003.
Zverev is the -132 favorite for Sunday's US Open men's final, with Shelton coming in at +109, according to DraftKings Sportsbook odds immediately following Shelton's win over Frances Tiafoe in the semifinals Friday night.
Zverev entered the tournament with second-best title odds of +300 behind Carlos Alcaraz (+250), who himself was only the favorite by virtue of Jannik Sinner missing the competition due to injury. Alcaraz got as short as -165 for the championship before falling to Shelton in the quarterfinals, accruing liability at BetMGM along the way.
With Alcaraz out, the sportsbook has no more losing liabilities on the men's side, and none of the books polled are being troubled by Zverev.
"Zverev's a very good player and has been, just sometimes there's not a belief in him," DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. "He won his first major [at the French Open], and if he wins this one, maybe there'll be more belief in him, but at this point there's just not a lot of Zverev followers and bettors consistently anyway."
There is some lingering liability with Shelton, though: Both Caesars and DraftKings say they will lose in the US Open winner market if Shelton wins his first Grand Slam title Sunday.
On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka is a -138 favorite to defeat Elena Rybakina (+113) in the US Open women's final, per DraftKings odds as of Friday night. In a rare move, both players lengthened from their openers, with Sabalenka starting at -150 and Rybakina opening at +110 following the latter's victory over Coco Gauff in Thursday's semifinal.
Sabalenka began the competition as the favorite at +320 and, due to her consistently short pricing, has not created any kind of liability for sportsbooks. Rybakina, on the other hand, was anywhere from 11-1 to 16-1 coming into the tournament "due to injury concerns and a lack of form in recent months," so her resurgence in this tournament has made her "the biggest mover in the futures market," Caesars trader John Mitchell told ESPN.
Several of the sportsbooks had liabilities on Gauff and Jessica Pegula, who fell to Sabalenka on Thursday. Avello says that Rybakina winning the title would be a loss for the book, so they'll "need Sabalenka" in the final.
He also points out that this year's tournament has accumulated some of the most handle DraftKings has ever recorded for a US Open, particularly due to the prevalence of live wagering, which is one area where bettors were able to beat the books.
"There have been some tough results in-play with three of the four women's quarterfinals having the favorite coming from a set down to win, and in the other women's quarterfinal, Sabalenka came from a break down in the third set to win," Mitchell said. "Tiafoe incredibly coming from two sets down and a break, where he got to a price of 12-1 with Michelsen serving for the match, was a bad result in-play too."
Avello notes that while Gauff falling short of the title was a positive result for the future book, the public was largely winning with her on a match-to-match basis.
