All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Monday's top batter prop bets
Juan Soto | OVER 0.5 HR (+315)
Projection: 28% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.41 EV
Edwin Arroyo | OVER 1.5 TB (+232)
Projection: 40% chance of this bet hitting, with a $31.67 EV
Ryan Ward | UNDER 0.5 H (+128)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.06 EV
Jake Mangum | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+104)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.32 EV
Max Muncy | UNDER 0.5 H (+147)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.80 EV
Monday's top pitcher prop bets
Walbert Urena | UNDER 4.5 K (-153)
Projection: 71% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.73 EV
MacKenzie Gore | OVER 5.5 K (-144)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.16 EV
Chase Burns | UNDER 7.5 K (-137)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.25 EV
Michael Lorenzen | UNDER 4.5 K (-168)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.77 EV
Zack Wheeler | UNDER 6.5 K (-113)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.41 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Minnesota Twins Game Total OVER:
Road games involving the Twins have hit this over in six consecutive contests. (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -110
Cincinnati Reds Team Total UNDER:
The Reds have gone under this total in six straight games at Great American Ball Park. (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -140
Miami Marlins Run Line:
The Marlins have lost this bet only once in their last 10 games. (+8.15 Units / 57% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -118
Chicago Cubs Team Total UNDER:
The Cubs have been under this total in eight of their last 10 home games. (+5.90 Units / 51% ROI). Current odds: 5.5 @ -135
