All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday's top batter prop bets
Kazuma Okamoto | OVER 0.5 HR (+650)
Projection: 16% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Okamoto has been hot lately, posting a an 18.2 Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) over the past seven days.
Ezequiel Tovar | OVER 0.5 RBI (+194)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.72 EV
One reason to bet this: In the early going, Tovar's swing has been optimized for home runs -- 31.3% of all the balls he hit had a launch angle in the optimal range of 23-34 degrees.
Heliot Ramos | OVER 0.5 RBI (+240)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.56 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.1 mph in this contest, the third-most favorable of the day for batters.
Friday's top pitcher prop bets
Nolan McLean | UNDER 5.5 K (-110)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.65 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system profiles Oracle Park as the sixth-worst venue in baseball for strikeouts.
Cade Horton | UNDER 4.5 K (-129)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Carson Kelly, the Chicago Cubs' expected catcher today, profiles as a weak pitch-framer.
Bailey Ober | UNDER 3.5 K (+122)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.79 EV
One reason to bet this: Ober's 89.7 mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in only the sixth percentile among all starters.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.
Chicago Cubs Team Total UNDER
The Cubs have hit this under in seven consecutive road games. (+7.05 Units / 82% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ +105
Miami Marlins Moneyline
Miami has won this bet in 11 out of its last 15 games. (+9.50 Units / 57% ROI). Current odds: +153
Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER
The Blue Jays have hit the over for this bet in 15 of their last 20 contests. (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ +110
