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MLB betting tips for Wednesday: Bellinger and Yankees set to start season strong

Cody Bellinger and the New York Yankees will start the 2026 MLB season with a Wednesday night game in San Francisco. Chris Coduto/Getty Images

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Today's top batter prop bets

Cody Bellinger | OVER 0.5 RBI (+204)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Bellinger's 18.5-degree launch angle (a reliable metric used to assess a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in baseball: 87th percentile.

Cody Bellinger | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-102)
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.27 EV
One reason to bet this: According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be beneficial to his chances.

Luis Arraez | UNDER 1.5 TB (+131)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.10 EV
One reason to bet this: Arraez grades out in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between minus-4 and 26 degrees, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits, but has only managed a 50.7% rate since the start of last season.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Max Fried | UNDER 1.5 ER (-103)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.09 EV
One reason to bet this: The top park in the league for suppressing walks, per my projections, is Oracle Park.

Logan Webb | UNDER 1.5 ER (+118)
Projection: 47% chance of this bet hitting, with a $2.07 EV
One reason to bet this: The New York Yankees were the luckiest offense in MLB in 2025, according to my projections, and are likely to hit worse overall in 2026.

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance.

Yankees: Team total
The OVER has hit in 15 of their last 20 away games dating back to last season (+9.35 units/40% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 (-115)

Giants: 1st 5 innings (F5) moneyline
This bet has won five straight times at home dating back to last season (+5.05 Units / 47% ROI). Current odds: -105

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