The expansion of the FIFA World Cup to a 48-team tournament in 2026 means there is a record nine nations representing the Asian Football Confederation on football's biggest stage this summer.
Eight were guaranteed direct berths via the Asian qualifiers before Iraq ensured the continent had maximum representation after sealing their place via the inter-confederation playoffs.
At this stage of the tournament, before a ball is even kicked, hope obviously springs eternal. But, realistically, some teams clearly have it all to do, while others could even already be quietly planning their itinerary for the knockout rounds.
The luck of the draw has plenty to do with this. A stronger team may just have found themselves coming up against formidable opposition, while one who -- on paper, at least -- is weaker might actually have a chance coming up against more evenly matched sides.
Factoring in the hands they have been dealt, and not just simply their quality, we rank the Asian hopefuls at the World Cup in terms of the likelihood they make it out of the group stage.
9. Iraq (world No. 56)
We start off with the last team from Asia to have booked a ticket to the World Cup, as recently as three months ago. But that is not the main reason why they look the least likely to advance.
After all, Iraq are not the lowest-placed team from their continent at the tournament, with their world ranking of No. 56 actually higher than Jordan -- and even Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Unfortunately for the Lions of Mesopotamia, being drawn in Group I has handed them three worrying assignments, including two top-15 teams in France and Senegal. Even the other opponents, who are ranked No. 31 in the world, happen to be a Norway side boasting genuine world-class talents in Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard.
It is difficult to even imagine Iraq will even sneak a third-place finish and give themselves a glimmer of hope.
8. Jordan (world No. 63)
Jordan have come on in leaps and bounds in recent times, highlighted by a maiden AFC Asian Cup final appearance at start of 2024.
Although not household names, they do boast some talented players including captain Musa Al-Taamari, who has been plying his trade in Ligue 1 -- first with Montpellier and now Stade Rennais -- since 2023.
Nonetheless, like Iraq, the draw has meant that -- for a side who will still be brimming with excitement at making their World Cup debut -- their prospects look bleak as all of their opponents sit inside the top 30 of the world rankings.
They can perhaps hope to get a point against either Austria or Algeria but maybe the biggest prize of all will be when they finish their Group J campaign with a glamour tie against defending champions Argentina, which many of their players could perhaps use as an opportunity to put themselves in the shop window.
7. Qatar (world No. 57)
Group B opponents: Switzerland (No. 19), Canada (No. 30), Bosnia-Herzegovina (No. 64)
There has been suggestion that Qatar, three and a half years on from an underwhelming World Cup debut as hosts, could stand a decent chance of making it out of the group stage.
A main reason behind this optimism has been the perception that Group B is bereft of genuine powerhouses -- with the highest-ranked team being world No. 19 Switzerland.
Unfortunately for the Qataris, they have hardly shown any improvement since the 2022 edition. Co-hosts Canada will have the added boost of home advantage, while Bosnia-Herzegovina's world ranking of No. 64 does not quite reflect the fact that they have plenty of personnel playing in Europe's big five leagues.
A solitary victory could be enough to advance as one of the best third-placed teams but, for Qatar, it is just not immediately apparent against which opposition that could realistically come from.
6. Uzbekistan (world No. 50)
Like Jordan, Uzbekistan will be making their World Cup debut, and will similarly be huge underdogs when they take on Portugal and Colombia -- who are both among the top 15 teams in the world.
Their cause, however, could be helped by the fact that the other team in Group K -- Congo DR -- are opposition they might have a realistic chance of beating, especially given the White Wolves actually do have a handful of players featuring in notable European leagues -- headlined by Manchester City defender Abdukodir Khusanov.
It will be important for Uzbekistan to have limited the damage in their opening two games against Colombia and Portugal.
A decent goal difference, even if it is negative, could set the stage for them to defeat the Congolese in what looks a genuine 50-50 contest and potentially seal a remarkable knockout round appearance at the first attempt.
5. Saudi Arabia (world No. 61)
Group H opponents: Spain (No. 2), Uruguay (No. 16), Cape Verde (No. 67)
It would, of course, be foolish to ever write off a team that inflicted the only loss suffered by Argentina in their triumphant 2022 World Cup campaign. But, just like Leicester City winning the Premier League in 2016 at 5000-1 odds, most would agree that would not be happening again in the next 4,999 instances.
Saudi Arabia will likely find themselves on the receiving end of defeats against Spain and Uruguay. The silver lining comes on the final match day when they take on Cape Verde -- the fifth lowest-ranked nation at the tournament, although the Green Falcons are only six spots above.
Again, victory over Cape Verde -- even if it's their only one in the group stage -- could be enough to seal a place in the round of 32.
And it is worth noting that Saudi Arabia do have a knack winning at least one game at the World Cup. Like they did against Argentina in 2022, as well as four years earlier when they beat a Mohamed Salah-led Egypt.
4. Iran (world No. 20)
Group G opponents: Belgium (No. 9), Egypt (No. 29), New Zealand (No. 85)
Considering plenty of focus is usually on Japan, South Korea and Australia when it comes to Asia's strongest sides, it can often go under the radar that Iran are actually the continent's second-highest ranked nation in football.
They have shown their World Cup pedigree in recent editions with a victory over Morocco and draw with Portugal in 2018, as well as a triumph over Wales in 2022 -- although their preparations for this summer have obviously been far from ideal.
Belgium are the clear favourites to top Group G but, while it is easy to have the impression that Egypt are formidable given they boast Salah and Omar Marmoush, Iran are no slouches with their fair share of Europe-based talent.
Victory over New Zealand, the lowest-ranked nation at the tournament, is a must for the Iranians. And if they can also see off Egypt, it would be them in a very good position.
3. Japan (world No. 18)
Group F opponents: Netherlands (No. 8), Sweden (No. 38), Tunisia (No. 45)
Given the strides Japan have made over the years, it might almost be assumed that they will be appearing in the knockout rounds of the World Cup -- as they have in the past two editions. And they should, although the draw means that they will have to be wary of a couple of potential banana skins.
Netherlands will be their biggest rivals for top spot although, given they beat both Germany and Spain in 2022, the Samurai Blue might not be overawed by such a challenge.
Instead, it is sometimes the games that they're expected to win where the Japanese falter, and European opposition -- like Sweden -- always pose a different test with a physicality that they do not often have to deal with at continental level.
Still, if they perform according to the form guide, especially considering they managed friendly victories over Brazil and England over the past eight months, Japan should be heading for the round of 32 -- and aiming even further.
2. Australia (world No. 27)
Group D opponents: United States (No. 17), Türkiye (No. 22), Paraguay (No. 41)
Being drawn in what many believe is the World Cup's most evenly matched group is a double-edged sword.
When you consider that Australia could realistically beat any of United States, Türkiye and Paraguay in Group D, it also goes without saying that any of them could also beat the Socceroos.
Like some of the groups above (and to follow), the fact that there is not one, or even two, traditional powerhouses must automatically be seen as a positive. Yet, this is only one of three groups with a trio of top-30 teams in the world.
On their day, the Socceroos could easily be topping the group with a maximum nine points. But they will have to make sure the exact opposite does not happen when it is not their day.
1. South Korea (world No. 25)
Group A opponents: Mexico (No. 14), Czechia (No. 40), South Africa (No. 60)
Finally, we're down to South Korea, and another group that -- on paper -- looks like it will be keenly contested.
It almost wouldn't be surprising if South Korea beat co-hosts Mexico, even on the latter's soil, but then fall to a shock loss to the lowest-ranked team in Group A in South Africa.
Still, like in Australia's case, sometimes the best thing in a scenario like this is simply that South Korea can have the mindset that their destiny is completely in their control. That's opposed to knowing you are likely to have two losses to overcome when starting your tournament against the likes Spain and Uruguay, or Portugal and Colombia for that matter.
South Korea will be aiming for at least two wins out of three. And, in Group A, it does look like a realistic target.
