The NBA summer league is only a small piece of the Rookie of the Year puzzle, as this award won't be named until next April, but it's the first chance to see which rookies are ready to contribute immediately.
Opportunities and role can matter just as much as talent once the regular season starts, but the confidence a player shows in summer league often carries over.
This July, several top lottery picks flashed exactly why they were drafted so highly, while a few long shots displayed strong performances and might have worked their way into the Rookie of the Year conversation. Others showed upside but also areas that could require time to develop, thus making them long shots for this award.
With odds shifting, here's how the Rookie of the Year race is shaping up after the first week of summer league and which bets stand out.
Odds by DK Sports
and subject to change.
Is AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson the better bet for NBA Rookie of the Year?
Dybantsa and Peterson flexed the skill sets that should allow them to be big scorers from the outset. But looking at style of play and team situation, Peterson is in the better position to win Rookie of the Year.
Dybantsa is an aggressive iso scorer from midrange in and has a knack for drawing fouls, but he'll be playing with a ball-dominant All-Star point guard in Trae Young and an All-Star power forward in Anthony Davis who operates in similar scoring areas. Dybantsa will need a consistent 3-point shot to maximize his scoring potential in this Washington Wizards offense, and from what I saw in Vegas, his long-range shooting stroke appears to still need work.
Peterson, meanwhile, should have a lead guard role on a young Utah Jazz squad with talent and upside. He'll have the opportunity to create his own looks as well as knock down 3-pointers created by his teammates. He has shown a knack for running the pick-and-roll, and if he can play an effective two-man game and average four-plus assists along with what should be solid scoring, he could have better overall numbers while playing on an up-and-coming Jazz squad.
Is Caleb Wilson still the best value bet to win Rookie of the Year?
After Wilson's performance in Vegas, the Chicago Bulls forward seems even more likely to challenge for Rookie of the Year than he did on draft night. Wilson was the most impressive rookie that I saw in Las Vegas.
He has similar size to Dybantsa, but to my eye was quicker than Dybantsa both with and without the ball, and he was the more explosive athlete vertically as well. Wilson has excellent defensive potential, which we knew coming in, but in Vegas he flexed a dramatically improved 3-point shot that completely opens up his offensive game.
Wilson's 35 points in his Vegas summer league debut were impressive, but that he scored 21 of those points on seven 3-pointers was eye-opening, particularly because he was usually creating the 3s himself off the dribble and on step-backs, not just knocking down catch-and-shoot baseline looks.
Wilson has the upside to be the best rookie in this class on both offense and defense, but he is still getting more juice than the other top rookies.
Who else has a legitimate chance to win Rookie of the Year?
Cameron Boozer and Darius Acuff Jr. are the two other rookies most likely to challenge for Rookie of the Year.
Boozer currently has the shortest odds to win the award. He was, as advertised, the most consistently strong and productive of the blue-chip rookies, exhibiting a skill set likely to make him a 20-10-5 points-rebounds-assists guy at the NBA level for the Memphis Grizzlies. His rebounding was a touch under my expectations in Vegas, but his all-around game was on display and very impressive. The only reason he isn't a better value to win the award is because his odds are already so short that there isn't enough juice, especially compared to some of his contemporaries.
Acuff has consistently been fourth in the ROY odds despite being the seventh pick in the draft. But his situation with the Sacramento Kings, where it appears he'll be a high-usage lead guard from day one, is ripe for great volume stats in points and assists. Acuff wasn't as aggressive in Vegas as I thought he might be, often content to run the offense as opposed to attacking the way that, for example, Dybantsa and Peterson often were. But Acuff flashed his explosive quickness, particularly when matched up with No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler, and that speed should serve him well at the NBA level.
If you had to pick one long shot (10-1 or longer) for ROY, who would it be?
Wagler, at 25-1 as of draft night, wasn't overly impressive in his first Vegas summer league game against Acuff. Acuff was noticeably quicker and more aggressive, and Wagler seemed to be easing into his feel for the speed of the game. But in his second game, against Peterson and the Jazz, Wagler got back to what he does best: shooting.
Wagler has the type of 3-point shot that always seems like it's going in. Similar to last season's Rookie of the Year runner-up, Kon Knueppel, Wagler has the kind of shot that could be game-changing for his LA Clippers team and could catapult him into Rookie of the Year consideration.
Is there a rookie you are fading for the award after seeing them in Vegas?
Yes, but not because he wasn't impressive in his own way in the summer league. Kingston Flemings, the No. 8 pick in this draft, has been trending on social media in a positive way for the leadership qualities and communication he displayed in Vegas.
He looks like a player who will develop into a quality point guard and leader moving forward, and the kind of player who contributes to championships. But what he doesn't look like is a player who will put up eye-popping stats as a rookie, particularly on an Atlanta Hawks squad with playoff aspirations and a strong, veteran backcourt that will likely cause Flemings to come off the bench.
I am bullish on Flemings as a player and long-term pro, but I don't see him posting the stats that could get him into the Rookie of the Year discussion.
