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This week, the SEC owns half of the spots in the projected College Football Playoff field.
Oregon losing to Oklahoma State didn't help the Big Ten, and if the playoff were today, No. 11 USC would get bumped to make room for Boise State, the projected Group of 6 representative.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor agrees, as the SEC currently has an 84% chance to send four or more teams to the playoff, while the Big Ten is at 16%. The ACC has a 56% chance to send two or more teams, followed by the Big 12 at 41%.
(And you wonder why the Big 12 and the ACC are in favor of a 24-team playoff.)
So, who's in? Who's on the verge of breaking through? And falling out?
The weekly Bubble Watch is here to sort it all out for you.
Below you'll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma -- a team that is quietly brewing with potential but still impossible to figure out. This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. As more games are played, we'll begin to separate the true bubble teams from the contenders and the teams that have been eliminated.
Reminder: This will change week to week as each team builds -- or busts -- its r�sum�.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket
Spotlight: Miami. No team in the country has a better chance to win its conference (50.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Hurricanes have looked dominant, outscoring their first two opponents 122-13, but that was against a depleted Stanford team and FCS Florida A&M. It wasn't easy to travel 2,500 miles for a Friday season opener at Stanford, though, and those are details the selection committee recognizes. The question is whether the Hurricanes can get through the schedule without losing a game they're favored to win. Miami's trip to Clemson on Oct. 3 looks even less daunting than it did heading into the season, and Notre Dame might be the only ranked opponent the Canes will face during the regular season. As long as Miami wins the ACC, it will be a lock for the CFP, but that strength of schedule could factor into where the Canes are seeded and whether they get a first-round home game or a bye.
The enigma: SMU. The Mustangs deserve credit for a road win against Florida State with half the power out on Labor Day night -- even if it was against a beleaguered program that just fired its athletic director. The Mustangs don't face Miami during the regular season but could in the ACC title game if SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings continues to rack up Heisman Trophy-worthy numbers. We'll learn more about just how good the�Mustangs are on Saturday against a ranked Louisville team, as the matchup will help indicate which squad will be Miami's toughest challenger for the ACC title and whether there is a second ACC team with playoff potential. According to ESPN Analytics, SMU's chances of reaching the CFP will be 40% with a win or sink to 11% with a loss.
Would be in:�Miami
Spotlight: BYU. The computers still like Texas Tech as the Big 12 favorite, but BYU took the early edge in the conference race on Saturday with its gritty win against a respectable Arizona team. BYU has a talented quarterback in Bear Bachmeier, who accounted for three passing touchdowns and one rushing. The defense held Arizona to 87 yards and 4.4 yards per play in the second half. If BYU can sustain that against the rest of the Big 12, it can lock in a spot as the league champ, which is where it is projected to land this week. ESPN's FPI gives the Cougars more than a 50% chance to win each of its next three games, and if that comes to fruition, BYU will be undefeated when it hosts Notre Dame on Oct. 17 with enormous playoff implications on the line. The only other game on its schedule that BYU isn't favored to win is its Nov. 7 trip to Utah. The Cougars don't play Texas Tech during the regular season, but that is still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 championship game.
The enigma: Oklahoma State. Well, hello there, Cowboys. Oklahoma State shocked Oregon, a 23.5-point favorite, and snapped a 12-game losing streak on Saturday. The Cowboys racked up 554 total yards and held Oregon to 281 while controlling the clock for nearly 37 minutes. Oklahoma State outgained Oregon 353-101 in the first half. But the Cowboys also lost to Tulsa. So, how good is this team? Quarterback Drew Mestemaker, a legitimate NFL prospect, will help answer that. Against Oregon, he had 426 yards of total offense, including a career-high 109 rushing. ESPN's FPI still doesn't have much faith in Oklahoma State, projecting six more losses this season. The Cowboys have the 12th-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game. A trip to West Virginia to end the month will help reveal whether the Cowboys are closer to the team that lost to the Golden Hurricane or the one that upended the Ducks.
Would be in:�BYU
Spotlight: Ohio State. Losing at Texas to what would now be the selection committee's No. 1 team is hardly a dire situation. In fact, Ohio State is currently No. 1 in ESPN's FPI (by a mere 0.3 points). It's for some of the same reasons the committee would consider: The Buckeyes' first opponent, Ball State, won on Saturday by 24 points, while the Longhorns' Week 1 opponent, Texas State, lost by five. Texas also was a 3.3-point favorite versus Ohio State by Analytics because the game was in Austin. While the committee would have Texas No. 1, the point is that Ohio State isn't far behind. The Buckeyes are still the heavy favorites to win the Big Ten (49.1%), and they have the fourth-best chance of reaching the CFP (74.5%). Their schedule, though, is daunting, as a three-game stretch from Oct. 17 to Nov. 7 against Indiana, USC and Oregon will determine the�Buckeyes' fate -- not the loss to Texas.
The enigma: Oregon. Are the Ducks really that bad? Or is Oklahoma State legit? With the loss to the Cowboys, Oregon's chances of reaching the CFP dropped 41%. Oregon still has a 14.4% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, behind Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State, according to ESPN Analytics. If Oregon is going to play its way back into the playoff conversation, it has to win at USC on Sept. 26 and might even need to win at Ohio State on Nov. 7. The Ducks will have to play better, though, for that to happen. According to ESPN Analytics, both USC (58.2%) and Ohio State (89.6%) have better chances to win those games.
Would be in:�Ohio State, Indiana
Spotlight: Texas. Nobody in the country has a better win, and it will continue to be valuable in the committee meeting room -- even more so if Ohio State wins the Big Ten. The victory over the Buckeyes had a huge impact on the Longhorns' strength of record metric, as the average playoff contender would have a 25% chance to start 2-0 against their schedule, giving Texas the best r�sum� in the FBS after two weeks. The question is whether Texas can sustain that success through what is currently the 12th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. ESPN's FPI says yes, as it projects the Longhorns to win every remaining game. No team currently has a better chance to reach the playoff (87.7%) or earn the No. 1 seed (36.7%).
The enigma: Georgia. Let's be real for a second. The Texas win was monumental, but Georgia might be the best team in the SEC. It's just too hard to tell after Georgia's lopsided wins against Western Kentucky and FCS Tennessee State. The Bulldogs have been playing in the shadows of Texas and LSU, but they're quietly crushing the little guys in a way that resembles last year's Indiana title team. Georgia and Texas don't play each other during the regular season, but that's the most likely matchup in the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. The Bulldogs have the second-best chance to win the league (22.6%), behind Texas (34.2%). Given Oklahoma's offensive flop in the Big House on Saturday, Georgia's Sept. 26 home game against the Sooners should have the Dawgs favored. So, it might not be until Oct. 10 at Alabama that Georgia gets its first real gut check.
Would be in:�Texas, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M
Would be in: Notre Dame. The 2-0 Fighting Irish are already ahead of where they were last year, which was 0-2. Nobody has a better chance to run the table than Notre Dame at 33%. But a lot of that hinges on the Week 10 home game against Miami, as the winner has better than a 50% chance to go undefeated. It will, however, be intriguing to see where the committee ranks the Irish before that Nov. 7 tilt, since it is the Saturday after the first CFP ranking. That means the Oct. 17 trip to BYU will be Notre Dame's best chance to impress the committee before the rankings begin. Why does any of it matter if Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot should they make the top 12 this season? It matters for seeding. It could be the difference between a home game, a first-round bye, a first-round road trip and a more favorable matchup. Right now, the Irish are in.
Spotlight: Boise State. Saturday's convincing home win against Memphis created separation between the Broncos and the Tigers, as Boise State now leads the race with an 18% chance to reach the CFP. In a strange subplot, it didn't help Boise State that Oregon lost at Oklahoma State. The Broncos, who fell to the Ducks 34-27 in the season opener, could benefit from an Oregon rebound, as a close road loss to a playoff contender resonates in the committee meeting room. Boise State is favored to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN's FPI, but it probably won't face another ranked opponent during the regular season. The Oregon game was the Broncos' best shot to impress the committee, which is why the Ducks' response will matter.
Enigma: North Dakota State. The Bison, who made the move from FCS to FBS this year when it joined the Mountain West, is one of only two FBS teams already 3-0 this season (because it played in Week 0). Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, North Dakota State has a 10.9% chance to reach the CFP, second highest among Group of 6 teams, behind Boise State (19%) and just ahead of South Florida (10.8%). North Dakota State will face Sacramento State this week, and while a win won't change the Bison's position, a loss would basically eliminate them.
Would be in: Boise State
Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2�Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 4 Notre Dame
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Indiana
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential�on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Georgia winner vs. No. 3 Miami
No. 10 Texas A&M/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Indiana winner vs. No. 1 Texas
